Baseball’s Most Valuable Player Award favorites did not perform well in the Box-Toppers metric in 2025.
Aaron Judge of the Yankees, Cal Raleigh of the Mariners and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers all hit more than 50 home runs, racking up impressive statistics. However, all three were comparatively rarely the player who contributed most to their team’s wins.
Chart: A Box-Toppers comparison of batters’ seasons
Here is a comparison of how select batters fared in Box-Toppers over the course of a season. Seven batters' seasons are compared—five from 2025 and two from 2024. Both 2024 Most Valuable Player winners, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, are listed twice—once with their 2024 statistics and again with 2025 stats, to show the differences between the two seasons. (Ohtani’s 2025 statistics are only for batting and exclude any pitching stats.)Three other players are also shown for 2025, who are either among league MVP favorites or among batters leading their league in Box-Toppers points for the season—Cal Raleigh, George Springer and Kyle Schwarber.
The chart shows each players’:
▪️Box-Toppers point total for the season (BTP).
▪️The number of times each won Player of the Game (POG) honors.
▪️Average Box-Toppers game score (BTG) for all games played in a season.
▪️Average B-T game score in team wins.
▪️Average B-T game score in team losses.
▪️Number of home runs for the season.
▪️Number of home runs hit in wins.
▪️Percentage of home runs hit in wins.
▪️Total team wins in which the player had a +3.0 B-T game score or better.
▪️Team wins in which the player had a +3.0 B-T game score or better but did not win Player of the Game honors.
| Player | BTP |
Total POG honors |
Avg. BTG |
Avg. BTG in wins |
Avg. BTG in losses |
HRs |
HRs in wins |
% of HR in wins |
BTG ≥+3.0 in wins |
Wins W/BTG ≥+3.0 & no POG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge 2025 | 6.5 | 4 | -0.73 | -0.26 | -1.42 | 53 | 33 | 62.3 | 8 | 4 |
| Cal Raleigh 2025 | 6.0 | 5 | -1.35 | -0.58 | -2.30 | 60 | 47 | 78.3 | 9 | 6 |
| George Springer 2025 | 9.7 | 7 | -1.10 | -0.36 | -2.12 | 32 | 26 | 81.3 | 8 | 2 |
| Shohei Ohtani 2025 | 3.5 | 3 | -1.21 | -0.57 | -2.06 | 55 | 36 | 65.5 | 7 | 5 |
| Kyle Schwarber 2025 | 12.0 | 10 | -1.33 | -0.71 | -2.24 | 56 | 44 | 78.6 | 11 | 5 |
| Aaron Judge 2024 | 13.0 | 11 | -0.72 | +0.10 | -1.85 | 58 | 43 | 74.1 | 19 | 11 |
| Shohei Ohtani 2024 | 11.0 | 10 | -1.10 | -0.65 | -1.79 | 54 | 42 | 77.8 | 8 | 3 |
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None of the three were even among their league’s top 10 batters in Box-Toppers points in 2025. However, Judge and Ohtani, who were the American League and National League MVPs, respectively, in 2024, did lead their league’s batters in Box-Toppers points last season.
But in 2025, Judge, Raleigh and Ohtani frequently did not win Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors in team wins because they were beaten by teammates who performed better in games.
As a result, none of those three—Judge, Raleigh or Ohtani—were even included on Box-Toppers’ league MVP ballots, even though they will be the likely first or second MVP choice for everyone else.
Box-Toppers stats are used in casting my vote in Internet Baseball Writers Association of America (IBWAA) balloting, completed at the end of the regular season, before the start of postseason play. The internet baseball writers group will tabulate results from member writers and announce them soon.
While the IBWAA voting is not the same as the official voting for the awards by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA), the results are often similar.
In a future post, I’ll review Box-Toppers’ complete choices for postseason honors submitted in the IBWAA vote. In this post, however, I’ll focus on the most WTF aspect of my ballot—why Judge, Raleigh and Ohtani are excluded.
How Judge, Raleigh and Ohtani fared in 2025
While favorites for MVPs, none of the three are even among the top 10 batters in their league in Box-Toppers points in 2025:
Judge earned 6.5 Box-Toppers points, 20th among AL batters, hitting 53 home runs. (In 2024, his 13.0 Box-Toppers points led AL batters, when he hit 58 home runs.)
Raleigh earned 6.0 Box-Toppers points, 24th among AL batters, hitting 60 home runs. (In 2024, he earned 6.2 Box-Toppers points, 14th among AL batters, in a season in which he hit 34 home runs.)
Ohtani earned 5.5 Box-Toppers points, 27th among NL batters, hitting 55 home runs. While he earned 3.5 points as a batter and 2.0 as a pitcher, he qualified to have his overall total rank in both categories. (In 2024, he earned 11.0 Box-Toppers points, first among NL batters in a season in which he hit 54 home runs and did not pitch.)
Box-Toppers’ MVP choices
Here is a look at who I chose for league MVPs based on the Box-Toppers metric:
American League—Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal
National League—Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies.
Box-Toppers’ AL MVP—Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal
It is unorthodox to choose a pitcher as a league Most Valuable Player. That is an award for batters, people say. Yet, pitchers have won the award in the past, notably Justin Verlander of the Tigers in the AL in 2011 and Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers in the NL in 2014. Pitchers win the award either when they have overwhelmingly dominant seasons or when no exceptional batters rise to challenge them.
Skubal earned 22.1 Box-Toppers points in 2025 to lead all players, more than double the point total of Box-Toppers’ top-ranked AL batter, George Springer of the Blue Jays, who earned 9.7 Box-Toppers points in 2025. Springer’s 9.7 points is the lowest total to lead any category since Box-Toppers tracking began in 1995. Springer ranks third on our AL MVP ballot, behind two pitchers—Skubal and Garrett Crochet of the Red Sox, who earned 19.8 points.
In cases in which the league’s top pitcher has more than twice as many Box-Toppers points as the league’s top batter, I choose pitchers for the award over batters. In the 31 seasons of Box-Toppers tracking (which began in 1995), there have been 62 instances of MVP voting, including this season’s. This is the 12th instance of a league top pitcher having more than double the points of a league top batter. (Here are the other 11 instances).
Most recently, this happened in 2021, when Max Scherzer of the Dodgers had 25.1 Box-Toppers points to lead NL players, more than double the points of the NL leading batter Nick Castellanos of the Reds (11.5). (Bryce Harper of the Phillies won NL MVP that season. His 5.5 Box-Toppers points ranked 28th among NL batters.)
Why Springer led AL batters
George Springer of the Blue Jays earned 9.7 Box-Toppers points in 2025, more than all AL batters. While Springer did not have as impressive a statistical season as either Judge or Raleigh, he was more frequently the key player in his team’s wins. He won Player of the Game honors seven times in 2025 (compared to five for Raleigh and four for Judge).
Springer only hit 32 home runs in 2025 (compared to 60 for Raleigh and 53 for Judge), but Springer hit a higher percentage of his homers in team wins (26, 81.8 percent) than Raleigh (47, 78.3 percent) or Judge (33, 62.3 percent).
Springer seemed to maximize his chances to earn a higher Box-Toppers point total in games during the season. There were eight team wins in which he had a Box-Toppers game score of +3.0 or better and he was Player of the Game in six of them. That means there were only two wins in which he had a +3.0 game score and was beaten by a teammate with a higher game score for Player of the Game honors.
Judge, Raleigh frequently outscored in Player of the Game chances
By contrast, Judge and Raleigh were more frequently outscored by teammates when they had Box-Toppers game scores of +3.0 or better in team wins. There were eight team wins in which Judge had a game score of +3.0 or better, but four times in which he did not win Player of the Game. There were nine team wins in which Raleigh had a game score of +3.0 or better, but six times in which he did not earn Player of the Game.
If Judge had won Player of the Game honors in those four team wins in which he had a +3.0 game score or better, he’d have at least 10.5 Box-Toppers points in 2025, enough to lead league batters. If Raleigh had won Player of the Game honors in the six team wins in which he had a +3.0 game score or better, he’d have at least 12.0 Box-Toppers points in 2025, enough to lead league batters and enough to have more than half the points of the league’s top pitcher Skubal and be deemed Box-Toppers’ AL MVP.
But they didn’t, and here’s why.
Judge was beaten for Player of the Game:
On March 30, when he had a +6.0 Box-Toppers game score by teammate Jazz Chisholm Jr., who had a +7.0 game score.
On Sept. 24, when he had a +5.0 game score by teammate, pitcher Max Fried, who had a +6.0 game score.
On April 16, when he had a +3.0 game score by teammate, pitcher Mark Leiter Jr., who had a +5.1 game score.
On April 29, when had a +3.0 game score by teammate, pitcher Carlos Rodón, who had a +6.0 game score.
Raleigh was beaten for Player of the Game:
On June 17, when he had a +7.0 game score by pitcher Bryan Woo, who had a +10.0 game score.
On May 2, when he had a +6.0 game score by Woo, who had a +13.1 game score.
On Aug. 24, when he had a +4.0 game score by pitcher Logan Gilbert, who had a +13.0 game score.
On June 22, when he had a +4.0 game score by Donovan Solano, who had a +5.0 game score.
On July 4, when he had a +3.0 game score by Woo, who had a +9.0 game score.
On April 12, when he had a +3.0 game score by Woo, who had a +5.0 game score.
Why Judge was Box-Toppers’ AL MVP in 2024
Judge led AL batters in 2024 with 13.0 Box-Toppers points, twice as many points as he earned in 2025. And while statistically, they may seem like comparable seasons, Judge was far more dominant from a Box-Toppers perspective in 2024:
Judge won Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors 11 times in 2024 compared to four for 2025.
His average Box-Toppers game score for 2024 was slightly better than 2025 (-0.72 vs. -0.73), but in team wins, he actually had a positive average game score (+0.10) compared to his -0.26 for 2025.
He hit more home runs in 2024 (58 vs. 53), and a higher percentage of his homers came in team wins in 2024 (43, 74.1 percent) than in 2025 (33, 62.3 percent).
Judge had an astronomical 19 times in which he had a Box-Toppers game score of +3.0 or better in 2024 (compared to eight for 2025), winning Player of the Game honors in eight of them. That means there 11 times in these instances in 2024 when a teammate had a higher game score than Judge to win Player of the Game. If Judge had earned Player of the Game honors in those 11 games, he would have had at least 24.0 Box-Toppers points in 2024, which would have broken the all-time, single-season Box-Toppers point total for a batter of 20.8, set in 2006 by Lance Berkman of the Astros.
Box-Toppers’ NL MVP—Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies
Schwarber led NL batters with 12.0 Box-Toppers points in 2025, 24th among all players.
Unlike in the American League, no pitcher had more than twice as many points as Schwarber (Paul Skenes of the Pirates led NL pitchers with 21.1), giving Schwarber the clear path to being the Box-Toppers’ NL MVP choice.
Schwarber led all players in 2025 with 132 runs batted in. He also led the NL in home runs with 56.
But while he is one of three finalists for NL MVP, Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers, the 2024 NL MVP, is considered the favorite to repeat.
But from a Box-Toppers perspective, Schwarber had a much better season than Ohtani:
He won Player of the Game honors 10 times in 2025 compared to Ohtani’s five times. (Ohtani won three of his Player of the Game honors as a batter and two as a pitcher.)
While Ohtani hit nearly as many homers as Schwarber (55), more of Schwarber’s home runs came in team wins (44, 78.6 percent) compared to Ohtani’s (36, 63.5 percent).
Schwarber also had 11 games in which he had a +3.0 Box-Toppers game score or better in team wins compared to seven for Ohtani. Both Ohtani and Schwarber had five games each with +3.0 or better game scores in which they did not earn Player of the Game honors.
Even if Ohtani had been able to win Player of the Game honors in the five games in which had a +3.0 game score or better, he might not have exceeded Schwarber’s 2025 Box-Toppers point total. If Ohtani earned 1.0 Box-Toppers point in each of those games, he’d have 10.5 points, only enough to rank third among NL batters.
Ohtani is considered the favorite for NL MVP for not only his continued batting prowess but also because he returned to his status as a two-way player—batting and pitching—in 2025. However, he only began pitching June 16 and only slowly ramped up his pitching from one inning to five or six by the end of the season, earning only 2.0 Box-Toppers points as a pitcher during the season. That compares to the 19.7 Box-Toppers points he earned as a pitcher with the Angels in 2022, which by itself ranked third among AL pitchers.
Why Ohtani was Box-Toppers’ NL MVP in 2024
Ohtani led NL batters in 2024 with 11.0 Box-Toppers points, twice as many as he earned in 2025, and he earned them all as a batter.
In 2024, Ohtani won Player of the Game honors 10 times (compared to five total for 2025—three as a batter and two as a pitcher).
Ohtani maximized his chances to earn a higher Box-Toppers point total in games during 2024, much the same way George Springer did in 2025 to lead AL batters. In 2024, Ohtani had a +3.0 Box-Toppers game score or better in eight games, winning Player of the Game honors in five of them. But he also earned Player of the Game honors five other times with a game score of +2.0 or less. In other words, Ohtani in 2024 was the rare batter who had more total Player of the Game honors (10) than games with a +3.0 game score or better in a team win (eight).
Conclusion
Raleigh, Judge and Ohtani all accumulated impressive statistics in 2025. But Box-Toppers looks at the overall season on a game-by-game basis. It’s not just how many home runs you hit but how they were deployed within games and brought to service to aid the team in a win.
Not all home runs are created equal. Hitting multiple homers and driving in numerous runs in a close-game victory is often the element that is most key to winning a game, worthy of Box-Toppers points. But a solo home run in a blowout win or a loss, while adding to a player’s homer tote board, is largely irrelevant in the course of a game.
The question is not how many home runs you hit, but did those home runs make you the player who most helped the team win the game? In 2024, for Judge and Ohtani, their offensive efforts more frequently resulted in Box-Toppers points. But in 2025, for Raleigh, Judge and Ohtani, their impressive stats were often not the key factor in team wins.
About Box-Toppers
Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day. (No Box-Toppers points are awarded in postseason games.)
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Related
Final 2025 Box-Toppers player rankings: Tigers’ Skubal is 2025 Box-Toppers Player of the Year; Skenes rises to lead NL pitchers
(Post was edited Wednesday, November 5, 2025, to correct an error, giving Aaron Judge even more potential points in 2024 if he had earned Player of the Game honors in all wins in which he recorded a +3.0 Box-Toppers game score or better in Yankees wins that season.)