At a Glance: Box-Toppers’ 2026 Postseason Path
| Round | American League Matchup | National League Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| Wild Card | (3) Mariners over (6) Orioles | (3) Dodgers over (6) Padres |
| Wild Card | (4) Red Sox over (5) Blue Jays | (4) Braves over (5) Mets |
| Divisional | (1) Yankees over (4) Red Sox | (1) Cubs over (4) Braves |
| Divisional | (2) Tigers over (3) Mariners | (2) Phillies over (3) Dodgers |
| Championship | (1) Yankees over (2) Tigers | (1) Cubs over (2) Phillies |
| World Series | NY Yankees over Chicago Cubs | |
The New York Yankees are Box-Toppers’ pick to win the 2026 World Series, defeating the projected National League champion Chicago Cubs.
Box-Toppers 2026 preseason predictions
Box-Toppers picks the Yankees to beat the Cubs in the 2026 World Series. Here is the predicted order of finish of all 30 teams in their divisions and their projected win total.| American League | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAST | Wins | CENTRAL | Wins | WEST | Wins | ||
| Yankees | 100 | Tigers | 94 | Mariners | 94 | ||
| Red Sox* | 94 | Royals | 91 | Rangers | 84 | ||
| Blue Jays* | 93 | Guardians | 78 | Astros | 75 | ||
| Orioles* | 92 | Twins | 77 | Athletics | 75 | ||
| Rays | 66 | White Sox | 57 | Angels | 69 | ||
| National League | |||||||
| EAST | Wins | CENTRAL | Wins | WEST | Wins | ||
| Phillies | 93 | Cubs | 94 | Dodgers | 92 | ||
| Braves* | 93 | Reds | 88 | Padres* | 91 | ||
| Mets* | 92 | Brewers | 74 | D-backs | 87 | ||
| Marlins | 62 | Pirates | 74 | Giants | 81 | ||
| Nationals | 57 | Cardinals | 57 | Rockies | 56 | ||
| * Wild card | |||||||
| ALCS: Yankees over Tigers | |||||||
| NLCS: Cubs over Phillies | |||||||
| World Series: Yankees over Cubs | |||||||
Box-Toppers projects the Yankees will win 100 games and the American League pennant, ahead of the Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, and Boston Red Sox.
The Cubs are picked to win the National League pennant with 94 wins, just ahead of a group of four teams projected to finish within two games of them—the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets.
The Yankees also led our Box-Toppers preseason rankings posted earlier this month. But that ranking was based entirely upon players’ 2025 Box-Toppers point totals. The win projections and division-by-division team rankings, shown here, is a weighted multi-year projection that considers players’ Box-Toppers point totals going back to 2021, with added weight given to more recent statistics.
Here is a look at how Box-Toppers sees each division race playing out:
American League East
Four of the division’s five teams are projected for the postseason with 92+ wins. But we have the Yankees out front with 100 wins, most of any team.
The Yankees roster in 2026 is mostly intact from 2025 with no big splashy offseason signings of new players. But their returning roster, featuring starting pitchers Max Fried and Carlos Rodón and batters Jazz Chisholm Jr. and AL MVP Aaron Judge, is enough to boost them to the top of Box-Toppers’ team rankings. In addition, perennial Cy Young contender Gerrit Cole is projected to return from Tommy John surgery after missing all of last season.
All three AL Wild Card teams are projected to come from this division—the Boston Red Sox (with 94 projected wins), the Toronto Blue Jays (93 wins) and the Baltimore Orioles (92 wins). The Blue Jays won the division last year with 94 wins, en route to winning the AL championship.
American League Central
The Detroit Tigers are projected to win 94 games to lead the division and become the second-ranked AL team in 2026. The Tigers won 87 games in 2025, finishing second in the division.
The Tigers boast pitcher Tarik Skubal, who led AL pitchers in 2025 with 22.1 Box-Toppers points, and also notably picked up pitcher Framber Valdez (11.7 Box-Toppers points in 2025, 13th among AL pitchers) from the Astros.
The Royals are projected to finish second in the division with 91 wins, finishing just outside playoff qualification, but making a big improvement from their 82-win season in 2025, boosted by acquiring outfielder Isaac Collins (5.5 Box-Toppers points in 2025) from the Brewers.
Last year’s champion, the Cleveland Guardians, are projected to slide to 78 wins following the loss of pitchers Luis Ortiz and Emmanuel Clase, both suspended indefinitely under MLB’s gambling policy.
American League West
The Seattle Mariners are projected to repeat as division title winners with 94 wins, an increase from their 90 wins in 2025. The Mariners roster is largely intact, fueled by four starting pitchers who all rank among Box-Toppers’ 2025 top 20 AL pitchers:
Bryan Woo, 18.0 Box-Toppers points, fifth overall, third among AL pitchers.
Luis Castillo, 16.1 points, ninth overall, fourth among AL pitchers.
Logan Gilbert, 13.1 points, 10th among AL pitchers.
George Kirby, 11.0 points, 19th among AL pitchers.
Complementing the rotation is AL MVP candidate Cal Raleigh (6.0 points).
We have the Mariners as the largest division favorite, finishing 10 games ahead of the projected second-place team, the Texas Rangers (84 wins). The other three teams in the division are projected to finish under .500, including the perennially contending Houston Astros (75 wins), the Athletics (75 wins) and the floundering Los Angeles Angels (69 wins).
National League East
A tight race among three teams is projected, with the Philadelphia Phillies edging out the Atlanta Braves and the New York Mets for the division title. However, we have the Braves and Mets as the top two NL Wild Card teams.
The Phillies are projected to win 93 games—fewer than the 96 they won in 2025—but still rank second among NL teams. Despite losing Ranger Suárez (15.8 points) to Boston, Philadelphia’s rotation remains elite, led by Jesús Luzardo (17.4), Cristopher Sánchez (15.4) and the expected return of Zack Wheeler (20.1), recovering from thoracic outlet decompression surgery.
The Phillies also feature the 2025 Box-Toppers points leader among NL batters, Kyle Schwarber (12.0).
The Braves are expected to also win 93 games, a big improvement from their 76-win season in 2025, with the addition of closer Robert Suarez (6.0 points) from the Padres, outfielder Mike Yastrzemski (4.0 points) from the Royals and the return of starting pitcher Chris Sale (11.4 points), catcher Drake Baldwin (6.5 points), first baseman Matt Olson (6.0 points) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (4.5 points).
The Mets are projected to finish third but still earn a Wild Card spot with 92 wins, a significant improvement over their 83-win season in 2025. Notably, the Mets acquired starting pitcher Freddy Peralta (14.7 Box-Toppers points, eighth among NL pitchers) from the Brewers.
National League Central
The Chicago Cubs are projected to win the division with 94 wins, up from their 92-win, second-place finish in 2025. The Cubs are also projected to win the NL pennant, but lose in the World Series to the Yankees.
The Cubs notably added starting pitcher Edward Cabrera, who earned 11.7 Box-Toppers points in 2025, 12th among NL pitchers, from the Marlins and third baseman Alex Bregman (3.7 points) from the Red Sox.
They return starters Matthew Boyd (10.7 points, 16th among NL pitchers), Jameson Taillon (10.1 points, 17th among NL pitchers), Cade Horton (9.7 points, 21st among NL pitchers) and Shota Imanaga (7.0 points, 35th among NL pitchers). Also returning are two Box-Toppers’ top 10 NL batters—Seiya Suzuki (9.5 points, fourth) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (9.5 points, fifth).
Last year’s NL Central champion, Milwaukee Brewers, face the league's steepest projected decline, falling from 97 wins to 74 after losing rotation ace Freddy Peralta to the Mets and rising hitter Isaac Collins to the Royals.
The Pittsburgh Pirates made big improvements in the offseason, adding hitters Brandon Lowe and Marcell Ozuna, to help Paul Skenes, who led NL pitchers with 21.1 Box-Toppers points in 2025. While they rank fifth among Box-Toppers’ biggest improving teams for 2026, we project them win just three more games than last season—from 71 to 74, and finish fourth.
The St. Louis Cardinals are projected to win just 57 and finish fifth, a huge drop from their 78-win season in 2025, as they lost key players Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Willson Contreras and Nolan Arenado in the offseason.
National League West
The two-time defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers are projected to win the division, winning one more game than they did last year (91 vs. 92).
Despite that slight improvement, we have them losing the NL Division Series and failing to win their third straight World Series.
The Dodgers picked up closer Edwin Díaz (8.0 points, first among NL closers) from the Mets and right fielder Kyle Tucker (4.7 points) from the Cubs. They notably lost starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (8.4 points) to retirement. Returning for the Dodgers are pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto (17.7 points, fourth among NL pitchers), third baseman Max Muncy (7.5 points, 10th among NL batters) and two-way player Shohei Ohtani (5.5 points). Though Ohtani was voted NL Most Valuable Player in 2025, he didn’t fare as well in Box-Toppers points for the season after leading NL batters in 2024 with 11.0 points. Ohtani is expected to return to being a full-time two-way player, pitching and batting.
The San Diego Padres are projected to finish one game behind the Dodgers with 91 wins (up from 90 wins in 2025) and repeat as an NL Wild Card team. The Arizona Diamondbacks are projected to win 87 (up from 80 in 2025) and the San Francisco Giants are projected to win 81 (same as last year). The Colorado Rockies will still finish fifth and are still projected to have the fewest wins among all teams (56), but it will still be a big improvement from their 43-win season in 2025.
Box-Toppers picks for postseason awards
Box-Toppers, as a member of the Internet Baseball Writers Association (IBWAA), is submitting these preseason picks to be amalgamated among all members with consensus results to be announced as the season begins.
Members were also invited to submit choices for 2025 postseason awards. While the picks for team standings are at least based on Box-Toppers points data from previous seasons, these picks for individual awards are more speculative whims.
My 2025 preseason choices for postseason awards won exactly zero postseason awards.
AL Most Valuable Player—José Ramírez, Guardians. Ramírez, 33, has never won the award but has been bubbling just under the top contenders for AL MVP for many years. He’s finished in the top 10 in voting eight times, with four top-three finishes, including a third-place finish in 2025. In 2026, he ranked second among AL batters with 9.5 Box-Toppers points and his 50.3 Box-Toppers points over 2021-25 also rank second among AL batters.
NL Most Valuable Player—Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers. He’s won the NL MVP two years in a row and he will be returning to a full-time two-way player role in 2026, pitching and hitting. While Box-Toppers did not have him among NL MVP candidates in 2025 because of his low Box-Toppers point total (5.5), his return to the mound should significantly bolster his Box-Toppers points total.
AL Cy Young Award—Garrett Crochet, Red Sox. I picked him last year and I am picking him again for 2026. In 2025, he earned 19.8 Box-Toppers points, second among AL pitchers, behind Tarik Skubal of the Tigers (22.1), so I came close.
NL Cy Young Award—Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers. He earned 17.7 Box-Toppers points in 2025, fourth among NL pitchers, but became an unstoppable Superman in the postseason, winning five total Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors, including in three of the four Dodgers wins in the World Series.
I wanted to be cute and say Shohei Ohtani would win the NL Cy Young and Yamamoto would win NL MVP. But I think that would make people’s heads explode.
AL Rookie of the Year—Blue Jays pitcher Trey Yesavage. Though he starts the season on the injured list with a right shoulder impingement, he was so good at the end of the season and especially in the World Series, I hope he will overcome that and show us those flashes of brilliance.
NL Rookie of the Year—Owen Caissie of the Marlins.
AL Reliever of the Year—Jeff Hoffman, Blue Jays, who led AL closers in 2025 (8.0 Box-Toppers points).
NL Reliever of the Year—Edwin Díaz, Dodgers, who led NL closers in 2025 with the Mets (8.0 Box-Toppers points).
About Box-Toppers
Box-Toppers tracks who contributes most to their team’s victory. Using standard box score statistics, we identify the Player of the Game for every MLB contest. In the regular season, winners earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point, with bonus points awarded to the top overall and league-specific players of the day. More on how Box-Toppers works.
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