ALCS Preview: Mariners hold Box-Toppers advantages over top AL seed Blue Jays

The American League’s top two-seeded teams play in the AL Championship Series, but Box-Toppers favors the second-seeded Seattle Mariners over the top-seed Toronto Blue Jays.

The Mariners are higher ranked in Box-Toppers team rankings, their likely starting nine batters have more Box-Toppers points and they hold an overwhelming advantage over the Blue Jays among starting pitchers. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, hold the Box-Toppers edge in relievers and key bench players.

How did they get here

Both teams are the top two-seeded AL teams in the postseason. The Blue Jays had the AL’s best winning percentage (.580), while the Mariners had the second-best winning percentage among AL division winners (.556), third-best among all AL teams, behind the New York Yankees’ (.580). Both had byes from the Wild Card round of the playoffs.

In the AL Division Series, the Blue Jays defeated the Yankees in four games, 3-1, and the Mariners defeated the Detroit Tigers in five games, 3-2.

Both teams’ Box-Toppers team rankings

Mariners players accumulated 117.6 Box-Toppers points in 2025, sixth among all teams and third among AL teams. The Blue Jays had 111.7 Box-Toppers points, 10th among all teams and fifth among AL teams.

Key 18 players

The Mariners have the Box-Toppers points advantage among the key 18 players on the roster, which include the likely nine starting batters, three key bench players, three top starting pitchers, their top closing pitcher and two other key pitchers and/or relievers. Those key 18 players for each team are listed in the chart. Among those 18 players, the Mariners have 104.9 Box-Toppers points compared to 82.0 for the Blue Jays.

Top 3 starting pitchers

The Mariners hold a significant advantage over the Blue Jays in this category as their top three pitchers in the series have nearly twice as many combined Box-Toppers points as the Blue Jays’ top three eligible starters.

The Mariners’ top three starters have a combined 47.2 Box-Toppers points while the Blue Jays’ top three starters have a combined 24.1 points.

The Mariners are aided in this category by the likely return of starter Bryan Woo in this series. Woo, who leads all Mariners players with 18.0 Box-Toppers points, fifth among all players and third among AL pitchers, was left off the Mariners’ ALDS roster due to pectoral inflammation, which he sustained during a game Sept. 19, but is on the roster for the ALCS and expected to pitch later in the series.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are constrained by the lack of availability of starter José Berríos, who was on the injured list due to right elbow inflammation and was not on the Blue Jays’ ALDS roster. Berríos earned 11.7 Box-Toppers points in 2025, 26th among all players, 14th among AL pitchers and second among all Blue Jays players.

Here are the Mariners’ three top starters:

  • Woo, 18.0 Box-Toppers points, fifth overall, third among AL pitchers.

  • Luis Castillo, 16.1 points, ninth overall, fourth among AL pitchers.

  • Logan Gilbert, 13.1 points, 20th overall, 10th among AL pitchers. He was Player of the Game in the ALDS Game 3 win on Oct. 7.

The Mariners are so rich with starting pitchers with significant Box-Toppers point totals that I filled the slots of top bullpen arms with two other usual starters:

  • George Kirby, 11.0 points, 34th overall, 19th among AL pitchers, who started in Game 5 of the ALDS win over the Tigers on Friday, earning Player of the Game honors.

  • Bryce Miller, 3.0 points, 108th overall, 89th among AL pitchers, who is starting in Game 1.

Here are the Blue Jays’ three top eligible starters:

  • Kevin Gausman, 14.1 Box-Toppers points, 15th overall, seventh among AL pitchers.

  • Chris Bassitt, 7.0 points, 104th overall, 42nd among AL pitchers. (Bassitt was not on the team’s ALDS roster due to back inflammation and his return for the ALCS was uncertain.)

  • Shane Bieber, 3.0 points, 330th overall, 98th among AL pitchers.

Though starter Eric Lauer has more Box-Toppers points than two of these three listed starters (10.0), he hasn’t been used in starting roles in the postseason, so I slotted him in the team’s bullpen.

Kirby and Gilbert have both won Player of the Game honors this postseason for the Mariners. Starter Trey Yesavage has earned Player of the Game honors for the Blue Jays (on Oct. 5) but has only 1.0 Box-Toppers point in 2025 and was excluded from the chart since he did not boost the team’s Box-Toppers point total.

While the Mariners have significant point advantages among starters, the Blue Jays are more rested, having played four ALDS games while the Mariners played five games—two that went to extra innings, including Friday’s game in which starters Gilbert and Castillo made high-stress, extra-inning relief appearances.

See the chart for Box-Toppers point totals of likely starting pitchers in the series.

Starting 9 batters

The Mariners’ likely starting nine batters have a combined 38.2 Box-Toppers points while the Blue Jays have 30.2.

Top-ranked batter in the series is George Springer of the Blue Jays, who led AL batters in 2025 with 9.7 Box-Toppers points. This was the lowest Box-Toppers point total to lead any category in a regular-length season since Box-Toppers tracking began in 1995. The previous record low was 10.7 points by Nolan Arenado of the Rockies to lead NL batters in 2016. The record low to lead AL batters in a season was 12.1 by Edwin Encarnacion of Cleveland in 2017, so Springer’s total was 2.4 points lower than that.

Top-ranked Mariners batter is third baseman Eugenio Suárez with 7.5 points, 11th among AL batters. He earned 6.5 of his points with the Diamondbacks before being traded to the Mariners July 31.

Though Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is an AL Most Valuable Player favorite, he ranks only second among Mariners batters with 6.0 Box-Toppers points (but since Suárez earned most of his points elsewhere, Raleigh does have the most points earned by a batter playing for the Mariners). Still, his 6.0 points ranks rather low—24th among AL batters—for a player in consideration for AL MVP. While he hit 60 homers during the season, he doesn’t have more Box-Toppers points because in Mariners wins, there was often another player who was a more key contributor to the win.

One Blue Jays likely starting nine batter earned no Box-Toppers points in 2025, rightfielder Anthony Santander, though he earned 6.5 points in 2024 with the Orioles, 12th among AL batters. He played in 155 games in 2024 and 54 in 2025.

See the chart for Box-Toppers point totals of likely starting nine batters in the series.

Key bench players

Among three key batters off the bench or used in platoon situations, the Blue Jays hold an edge with 7.7 Box-Toppers points compared to 2.5 for the Mariners.

See the chart for details on bench players.

Key relievers

The Blue Jays have an advantage in this category, 20.0 points vs. 17.0 points. However, starting pitchers for both teams are included in this mix, including Kirby and Miller for the Mariners and Eric Lauer (10.0 points) for the Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays hold the edge among closing pitchers. Jeff Hoffman’s 8.0 Box-Toppers points leads AL closing pitchers, while Andrés Muñoz of the Mariners has 3.0 points, 13th among AL closers.

See the chart for details on relievers.

Conclusion

The Mariners finished with 90 wins while the Blue Jays had 94, but the Mariners hold significant Box-Toppers advantages in important categories, including starting pitching. The Blue Jays are rested and could gain momentum with early series wins over a tired Mariners team.

A couple of things to watch for: Will Woo return healthy after nearly a month off? And do the Blue Jays have surprises in store? Veteran starting pitcher Max Scherzer, 41, was not on the team’s ALDS roster, but could he return as the ace of a couple years back, the one who earned 256.7 career Box-Toppers points, second among all active players? And is there a chance the Blue Jays could see a return of players struggling with injury—Bo Bichette and José Berríos?

AL Championship Series player comparisons

Likely starting players for the Mariners and Blue Jays listed by position with their Box-Toppers point total (BTP) for the 2025 regular season and their overall rank among all players. Includes likely starting nine batters, three likely bench batters, three starting pitchers, top closing pitcher and two extra pitchers:
Pos Mariners BTP Rank Pos Blue Jays BTP Rank
1B Josh Naylor 4.5 222 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 4.0 245
2B Jorge Polanco 3.0 342 2B Ernie Clement 1.0 633
SS J.P. Crawford 3.5 291 SS Andrés Giménez 2.5 378
3B Eugenio Suárez 7.5 89 3B Addison Barger 2.5 397
CA Cal Raleigh 6.0 139 CA Alejandro Kirk 7.0 115
CF Julio Rodríguez 5.5 173 CF Daulton Varsho 2.5 380
LF Randy Arozarena 5.5 176 LF Davis Schneider 1.0 604
RF Victor Robles 1.0 1008 RF Anthony Santander 0.0 790
DH Dominic Canzone 1.7 532 DH George Springer 9.7 46
PH Leo Rivas 1.5 569 PH Myles Straw 4.7 644
PH Mitch Garver 1.0 627 PH Nathan Lukes 2.0 512
PH Luke Raley 0.0 836 PH Isiah Kiner‑Falefa 1.0 217
SP Bryan Woo 18.0 5 SP Kevin Gausman 14.1 15
SP Luis Castillo 16.1 9 SP Chris Bassitt 7.0 104
SP Logan Gilbert 13.1 20 SP Shane Bieber 3.0 330
CP Andres Muñoz 3.0 309 CP Jeff Hoffman 8.0 73
PI George Kirby 11.0 34 PI Eric Lauer 10.0 44
PI Bryce Miller 3.0 302 PI Louis Varland 2.0 476
Totals 104.9 Totals 82.0
Chart is sortable. Click a column header to re-sort the chart by the values in that column. Refresh page to restore chart to default view.
Back to top

ALCS Game 1, Mariners at Blue Jays

The pitching matchup Sunday:

Mariners—Bryce Miller, 3.0 Box-Toppers points in 2025, 302nd among all players, 89th among AL pitchers.

Miller started in the ALDS Game 4 loss against the Tigers on Oct. 8 (4.1IP 4H 2R 0BB 2K ND).

Blue Jays—Kevin Gausman, 14.1 Box-Toppers points in 2025, 15th among all players, seventh among AL pitchers.

Gausman started in the ALDS Game 1 win over the Yankees on Oct. 4 (5.2IP 4H R 2BB 3K W), but did not earn Player of the Game honors.

A Box-Toppers look at Sunday’s League Championship Series pitching matchups

A Box-Toppers look at the upcoming day’s probable pitching matchups. Teams are paired below with visiting teams on top and home teams on the bottom. Each team’s starting pitcher is shown with their Box-Toppers point total from 2025 (’25), this year and last year (’24-25), over a six-year period (’20-25) and their career point total.
Back to top
Game Starter ’25 ’24‑25 ’20‑25 Career
SEA Miller, Bryce 4797 3.0 18.7 31.8 31.8
TOR Gausman, Kevin 3191 14.1 24.1 70.2 112.2
Starters subject to change.
* Player has yet to earn any career Box-Toppers points.
What are those numbers after players' names?
Chart is sortable. Click a column header to re-sort the chart by the values in that column. Refresh page to restore chart to default, game-by-game view.
Back to top

About Box-Toppers

Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day. (No Box-Toppers points are awarded in postseason games.)

Box-Toppers strives for accuracy. See a mistake in a post? A wrong name, wrong team, grammar error, spelling goof, etc.? Thanks for pointing it out! Contact Box-Toppers here. Let's fix it and make it right.

For additional updates, follow Box-Toppers on Bluesky or Twitter (X).

Related