NLCS preview: Brewers hold Box-Toppers advantages, but Dodgers bring experience

Box-Toppers favors the top-seed Milwaukee Brewers over the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2025 National League Championship Series.

The Dodgers are the third-seeded NL playoff team but rank higher than the Brewers in final 2025 Box-Toppers team rankings—in fifth place overall with their players accumulating 117.9 Box-Toppers points during the season, third among NL teams and most among surviving postseason teams. Brewers players have a combined 112.6 Box-Toppers points in 2025, ninth among all teams and fifth among NL teams.

However, the Brewers hold Box-Toppers points advantages over the Dodgers:

  • The key core 18 players have more combined points: 84.4 vs. 80.7.

  • The top three likely starting pitchers have more combined points: 31.7 vs. 29.7.

  • The key starting nine batters have more combined points: 32.7 vs. 29.6.

  • The top three key bench players have more combined points: 12.0 vs. 7.0.

The Dodgers hold the points advantage among the top three relief pitchers: 14.4 vs. 8.0

How did they get here

The Brewers have baseball’s overall best winning percentage (.599) and are the top NL playoff seed and hold home-field advantage for as far as they advance in the postseason. They had a bye from the Wild Card round of the playoffs and beat the Chicago Cubs, 3-2, in the best-of-five-game NL Division Series to advance to the NLCS.

The Dodgers had the NL’s third-best winning percentage (.574) and were the third-seeded NL playoff team. They swept the Cincinnati Reds in their best-of-three-game NL Wild Card series, 2-0, to advance to the NL Division Series. They beat the Philadelphia Phillies in the best-of-five-game NLDS, 3-1, to advance to the NLCS.

Key 18 players

The Brewers have the Box-Toppers points advantage among the key 18 players on the roster, which include the likely nine starting batters, three key bench players, three top starting pitchers, their top closing pitcher and two other key pitchers and/or relievers. Those key 18 players for each team are listed in the chart. Among those 18 players, the Brewers have 84.4 Box-Toppers points compared to 80.7 for the Dodgers.

Top 3 starting pitchers

The Brewers hold a slight advantage in this category with their top three available starters having a 31.7-to-29.7 point advantage.

The Brewers’ top three starters:

  • Freddy Peralta, 14.7 Box-Toppers points, 12th overall, eighth among NL pitchers.

  • Quinn Priester, 11.0 points, 36th overall, 14th among NL pitchers.

  • Jacob Misiorowski, 6.0 points, 155th overall, 50th among NL pitchers. Misiorowski was used as a middle reliever in the NLDS series win over the Cubs, but has earned Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors twice this postseason—Oct. 6 in NLDS Game 2 and Oct. 11 in NLDS Game 5.

A key Brewers starting pitcher in 2025, Brandon Woodruff, has not been available to the team during the postseason and will not be available for the NLCS due to a lat strain. Woodruff, whose 9.7 Box-Toppers points in 2025 was 20th among NL pitchers and fourth among all Brewers players, has yet to resume throwing.

The Dodgers top three starters:

  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 17.7 Box-Toppers points, seventh among all players, fourth among NL pitchers. Yamamoto was Player of the Game Oct. 1 in the NL Wild Card Game 2 win over the Reds.

  • Blake Snell, 7.0 points, 98th among all players, 36th among NL pitchers. He’s earned Player of the Game honors in both of his 2025 postseason starts: In the NL Wild Card Game 1 win over the Reds on Sept. 30 and in the NL Division Series Game 2 win over the Phillies on Oct. 6.

  • Tyler Glasnow, 5.0 points, 185th among all players, 57th among NL pitchers. Glasnow was Player of the Game in the Oct. 9 NLDS Game 4 win over the Phillies.

A few caveats here: Yamamoto is the only top Dodgers starting pitcher who was largely healthy all season and was used fairly consistently throughout the season. Snell and Glasnow both missed parts of the season with injury and manager Dave Roberts has seemed to nurse them both back to health in time to be at their peak during the postseason. So their season Box-Toppers points numbers may not reflect their potential postseason performance. Both pitchers have had multiple seasons of more than 10 Box-Toppers points (three for Glasnow and six for Snell, including leading all players in 2018 with 27.2 points) and both had more than 10 points in 2024.

Also note that Roberts has similarly nursed along two-way player Shohei Ohtani in his return to the mound in 2025. Ohtani underwent elbow surgery after the 2023 season, did not pitch in 2024 in his first year with the Dodgers, and only made his 2025 pitching debut on June 16. He started pitching just one inning per game, but was slowly ramped up to five innings or more in three of his last four regular-season starts. Ohtani earned just 2.0 Box-Toppers points as a pitcher in 2025, but earned Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors as a pitcher in NLDS Game 1 on Oct. 4.

The Dodgers also have another literal ace up their sleeve: Clayton Kershaw earned 8.4 Box-Toppers points in 2025, 28th among NL pitchers. However, Kershaw, 37, who has announced he is retiring after this season, has been used by the Dodgers as a reliever this postseason, so I slotted him and his points among key relievers for the series. Kershaw had a bounce-back season in 2025 and in fact, ranks second among all season-long Dodgers players in 2025 Box-Toppers points. Kershaw finished with 280.8 career Box-Toppers points, which is second among all players in the Box-Toppers era (beginning in 1995), only 1.7 points behind Randy Johnson’s 282.5. (Johnson would likely have 380 points if his entire career from 1988 were tracked.)

While the Brewers hold a slight Box-Toppers points edge among starting pitchers, that number may be deceiving and the Dodgers may, in truth, hold an overwhelming advantage in that area going into this series.

See the chart for Box-Toppers point totals of likely starting pitchers in the series.

Starting 9 batters

The Brewers’ likely starting nine batters have a combined 32.7 Box-Toppers points while the Dodgers have 29.6.

Top-ranked batter in this series is Christian Yelich of the Brewers, who ranks second among NL batters with 11.2 Box-Toppers points, behind Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies (12.0). Yelich and Schwarber were the only batters in 2025 with more than 10 Box-Toppers points. That is the fewest number of batters with 10 points in a regular-length season since Box-Toppers tracking began in 1995. The previous low was four in 2022. (From 1995 to 2009, an average of 22.7 batters earned 10 or more points in a season.)

Max Muncy led Dodgers with 7.5 Box-Toppers points in 2025, 10th among NL batters.

Though Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers is an NL Most Valuable Player favorite, he earned only 5.5 Box-Toppers points in 2025—3.5 as a batter and 2.0 as a pitcher. He qualified to rank among both pitchers and batters, with his 5.5 points placing him 55th among NL pitchers and 27th among NL batters.

Ohtani hit 55 home runs and started 14 games as a pitcher, but had a drop-off season in Box-Toppers points. He earned 11.0 points in 2024 (hitting 54 homers and driving in 130 runs), to lead NL batters. But in 2025, he had only half that many Box-Toppers points because other Dodgers players frequently beat him for Player of the Game honors in team wins. Ohtani earned his 3.5 points as a batter on June 27 and before and earned his 2.0 points as a pitcher on July 12 and later.

One other notable batter is not among players listed on the chart: Rhys Hoskins of the Brewers, who earned 4.5 Box-Toppers points in 2025, 43rd among NL batters. Hoskins was not on the NLDS roster as he recovered from a thumb injury and after Andrew Vaughn performed well as his replacement at first base. (Vaughn earned 3.5 points in 2025—all from July 20 to Aug. 1—63rd among NL batters.)

Brewers likely starting third baseman Caleb Durbin, a rookie, has 0.0 Box-Toppers points in 2025 and has yet to earn his first career Player of the Game honor, so has no Box-Toppers ranking. Durbin played 136 games in 2025.

See the chart for Box-Toppers point totals of likely starting nine batters in the series.

Key bench players

Among three key batters off the bench or used in platoon situations, the Brewers hold an edge with 12.0 Box-Toppers points compared to 7.0 for the Dodgers.

See the chart for details on bench players.

Key relievers

The Dodgers have an advantage in this category, 14.4 points vs. 8.0 points. However, the Dodgers total includes Clayton Kershaw who earned 8.4 points as a starter during the regular season, but was used out of the bullpen in the postseason.

Box-Toppers’ top reliever for both teams is Justin Wrobleski of the Dodgers, who earned 6.0 Box-Toppers points in 2025 as a closer and middle reliever. He ranks first among NL middle relievers in 2025 Box-Toppers points.

Abner Uribe has served as the Brewers closing pitcher recently and earned 2.0 Box-Toppers points in 2025. He ranks 38th among NL middle relievers, earning no Box-Toppers points as a closer during the regular season.

Roki Sasaki, a rookie, has served as the Dodgers closing pitcher recently, but has yet to earn Player of the Game honors and so has 0.0 career Box-Toppers points and no Box-Toppers ranking. He made 10 appearances in 2025, including eight starts. He was out from May to September with a right shoulder impingement and was activated in late September, making two relief appearances. He made four relief appearances in the NLDS, serving as closer in two games.

See the chart for details on relievers.

Conclusion

The Dodgers have experience as defending World Series champions and manager Dave Roberts seems to have a fresher pitching staff at whom he’s waving his conducting baton to crescendo to fortissimo and allegro at just this moment in the postseason. (Translation: The Dodgers may be peaking at just the right moment.)

But on paper, the Brewers have the better record and compare more favorably to the Dodgers among likely players in the series.

NL Championship Series player comparisons

Likely starting players for the Dodgers and Brewers listed by position with their Box-Toppers point total (BTP) for the 2025 regular season and their overall rank among all players. Includes likely starting nine batters, three likely bench batters, three starting pitchers, top closing pitcher and two extra pitchers:
Pos Dodgers BTP Rank   Pos Brewers BTP Rank
1B Freddie Freeman 4.5 224   1B Andrew Vaughn 3.5 293
2B Tommy Edman 0.0 881   2B Brice Turang 2.0 459
SS Mookie Betts 5.2 182   SS Joey Ortiz 2.5 382
3B Max Muncy 7.5 90   3B Caleb Durbin 0.0 —*
CA Ben Rortvedt 0.0 849   CA William Contreras 4.0 248
CF Andy Pages 2.7 370   CF Blake Perkins 2.5 376
LF Enrique Hernández 1.5 540   LF Jackson Chourio 5.0 189
RF Teoscar Hernández 2.7 368   RF Sal Frelick 2.0 474
DH Shohei Ohtani 5.5 171   DH Christian Yelich 11.2 33
PH Alex Call 4.0 269   PH Isaac Collins 5.5 179
PH Miguel Rojas 2.0 418   PH Jake Bauers 4.0 253
PH Will Smith 1.0 593   PH Andruw Monasterio 2.5 392
SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto 17.7 7   SP Freddy Peralta 14.7 12
SP Blake Snell 7.0 98   SP Quinn Priester 11.0 36
SP Tyler Glasnow 5.0 185   SP Jacob Misiorowski 6.0 155
CP Roki Sasaki 0.0 —*   CP Abner Uribe 2.0 522
PI Clayton Kershaw 8.4 72   PI Trevor Megill 3.0 311
PI Justin Wrobleski 6.0 149   PI Chad Patrick 3.0 359
  Totals 80.7       Totals 84.4  
* Rookies Caleb Durbin and Roki Sasaki did not earn Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors during their first regular season in 2025 and so have no career Box-Toppers points and no ranking.
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Monday’s pitching matchups (for more, see matchups chart below):

AL Championship Series Game 2, Mariners lead Blue Jays, 1-0

The pitching matchup Monday:

Mariners—Logan Gilbert, 13.1 points, 20th overall, 10th among AL pitchers.

He was Player of the Game in the ALDS Game 3 win over the Tigers on Oct. 7.

Blue Jays—Trey Yesavage, 1.0 Box-Toppers point in 2025, tied for 709th among all players, tied for 194th among AL pitchers. Yesavage made his Major League debut Sept. 15 and has appeared in three regular season games.

He was Player of the Game in the ALDS Game 2 win over the Yankees on Oct. 5.

NL Championship Series Game 1, Dodgers at Brewers

The pitching matchup Monday:

Dodgers—Blake Snell, 7.0 Box-Toppers points in 2025, 98th among all players and 36th among NL pitchers.

He’s earned Player of the Game honors in both his 2025 postseason starts: In the NL Wild Card Game 1 win over the Reds on Sept. 30 and in the NL Division Series Game 2 win over the Phillies on Oct. 6.

Brewers—No starting pitcher had been named as of Monday morning, but Quinn Priester seems to be a likely candidate. Priester has 11.0 Box-Toppers points in 2025, 36th among all players and 14th among NL pitchers.

Priester struggled in his only 2025 postseason start, the NL Division Series Game 3 loss to the Cubs on Oct. 8, when he had a -11.8 Box-Toppers game score (0.2IP 3H 4R 2BB K ND), throwing 39 pitches.

A Box-Toppers look at Monday’s League Championship Series pitching matchups

A Box-Toppers look at the upcoming day’s probable pitching matchups. Teams are paired below with visiting teams on top and home teams on the bottom. Each team’s starting pitcher is shown with their Box-Toppers point total from 2025 (’25), this year and last year (’24-25), over a six-year period (’20-25) and their career point total.
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Game Starter ’25 ’24‑25 ’20‑25 Career
SEA Gilbert, Logan 4439 13.1 26.1 60.6 60.6
TOR Yesavage, Trey 5287 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
LAD Snell, Blake 3688 7.0 22.7 65.6 111.8
MIL Undecided 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Starters subject to change.
* Player has yet to earn any career Box-Toppers points.
What are those numbers after players' names?
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About Box-Toppers

Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day. (No Box-Toppers points are awarded in postseason games.)

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