Box-Toppers 2023 preseason predictions
Box-Toppers picks the Mets to beat the Yankees in the 2023 World Series. Here is the predicted order of finish of all 30 teams in their divisions and their projected win total.| American League | |||||||
| EAST | Wins | CENTRAL | Wins | WEST | Wins | ||
| Yankees | 102 | Twins | 87 | Mariners | 91 | ||
| Blue Jays* | 92 | White Sox | 87 | Rangers* | 90 | ||
| Orioles | 80 | Guardians | 85 | Angels* | 88 | ||
| Rays | 77 | Royals | 77 | Astros | 85 | ||
| Red Sox | 70 | Tigers | 60 | Athletics | 45 | ||
| National League | |||||||
| EAST | Wins | CENTRAL | Wins | WEST | Wins | ||
| Mets | 104 | Brewers | 91 | Padres | 101 | ||
| Braves* | 95 | Cardinals* | 87 | Dodgers* | 97 | ||
| Phillies | 85 | Cubs | 83 | Giants | 85 | ||
| Marlins | 73 | Pirates | 61 | Rockies | 74 | ||
| Nationals | 59 | Reds | 50 | Diamondbacks | 69 | ||
| * Wild card | |||||||
| ALCS: Yankees over Mariners | |||||||
| NLCS: Mets over Padres | |||||||
| World Series: Mets over Yankees | |||||||
Box-Toppers picks the New York Mets to win the 2023 World Series, beating the predicted American League champion New York Yankees.
Box-Toppers projects the Mets will have the most wins among all teams—104—and will be one of three teams with more than 100 wins, along with the Yankees and the San Diego Padres.
The Mets are picked to win the National League pennant, beating the Padres in the NL Championship Series. The Padres are predicted to have the second-most wins (101) among NL teams and third-most overall.
The Yankees are forecast to win the American League pennant, winning the second-most games among all teams (102). They are projected to beat the Seattle Mariners (91 wins) in the AL Championship Series.
Here is a look at how Box-Toppers sees each division race playing out:
AL East—Yankees will win the division by 10 games over second-place Toronto Blue Jays, who will win 92 games, enough to win the top AL Wild Card spot. The Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox will all be below .500.
AL Central—A tight race with the Minnesota Twins just edging the Chicago White Sox (both with 87 wins). The Cleveland Guardians will be close behind. The Kansas City Royals will be below .500 and the Detroit Tigers will lose 100 games. The Twins will be the division’s only playoff qualifier.
AL West—The Seattle Mariners will narrowly win the division with 91 wins, over two teams on the rise in 2023: the Texas Rangers (90 wins) and the Los Angeles Angels (88 wins). Both the Rangers and Angels will qualify for the second and third AL Wild Card spots. Though the Mariners will have the third-best record in the AL, they will be the second overall AL playoff seed because of their division win. Based on that, they will make it as far as the AL Championship Series, losing to the Yankees. The 2022 World Series champion Houston Astros suffer after losing pitcher Justin Verlander in free agency to the New York Mets and finish fourth in the division with 85 wins, just out of playoff contention. The Oakland Athletics bring up the rear, forecast with baseball’s worst record, winning just 45 games.
NL East—The New York Mets, on the strength of signing free agent Verlander from Houston, are forecast to finish first with 104 wins, nine games ahead of the Atlanta Braves (95 wins). The Braves will qualify as the NL second Wild Card. Last year’s NL champion, the Philadelphia Phillies, fall just out of playoff contention with 85 wins, third in the division. The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals are both forecast under .500, with the Nationals projected to lose 100 games.
NL Central—The Milwaukee Brewers, with 91 wins, will finish ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals, with 87 wins. The Cardinals will qualify as the third NL Wild Card team. The Chicago Cubs will finish just above .500 (83 wins), while both the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds are both forecast to lose 100 games each.
NL West—The San Diego Padres will win the division with 101 wins, securing the NL second playoff seed. The Los Angeles Dodgers finish second with 97 wins and qualify as the top NL Wild Card team. The San Francisco Giants, with 85 wins, finish third, just missing the postseason. The Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks will finish under .500.
Here is a look at Box-Toppers projections for all 12 postseason spots (as seen in the 2023 preseason playoff picks graphic on this page):
American League
Top seed—East Division Champion Yankees, receiving a bye in the AL Wild Card Round (102 wins).
Second seed—West Division Champion Seattle Mariners, receiving a bye in the AL Wild Card Round (91 wins).
Third seed—Central Division Champion Minnesota Twins (87 wins).
Fourth seed—Top AL Wild Card Toronto Blue Jays (92 wins).
Fifth seed—Second-ranked AL Wild Card Texas Rangers (90 wins).
Sixth seed—Third-ranked AL Wild Card Los Angeles Angels (88 wins).
National League
Top seed—East Division Champion New York Mets, receiving a bye in the NL Wild Card Round (104 wins).
Second seed—West Division Champion San Diego Padres, receiving a bye in the NL Wild Card Round (101 wins).
Third seed—Central Division Champion Milwaukee Brewers (91 wins).
Fourth seed—Top-ranked NL Wild Card Los Angeles Dodgers (97 wins).
Fifth seed—Second-ranked NL Wild Card Atlanta Braves (95 wins).
Sixth seed—Third-ranked NL Wild Card St. Louis Cardinals (87 wins).
Wild Card Round
Here are Box-Toppers’ picks in the Wild Card Round:
American League
Sixth-seed Angels over third-seed Twins.
Fourth-seed Blue Jays over the fifth-seed Rangers.
National League
Third-seed Brewers over sixth-seed Cardinals.
Fourth-seed Dodgers over the fifth-seed Braves.
Division Series
In each league’s Division Series, the winner of the 3-6 Wild Card Round plays the league’s second seed and the winner of the 4-5 Wild Card Round plays the top seed.
American League
Second-seed Mariners over sixth-seed Angels.
Top-seed Yankees over fourth-seed Blue Jays.
National League
Second-seed Padres over third-seed Brewers.
Top-seed Mets over fourth-seed Dodgers.
And as previously mentioned, Box-Toppers projects the Yankees over the Mariners in the ALCS and the Mets over the Padres in the NLCS, with the Mets beating the Yankees in the World Series.
Box-Toppers’ win projections and team rankings are largely similar to Box-Toppers’ first-to-30th list of teams in its preseason rankings. However, the team rankings are based only on players’ 2022 Box-Toppers point totals. The win projections and division-by-division team rankings, shown here, are based on a formula that considers players’ Box-Toppers point totals going back to 2018, with added weight given to more recent statistics.
Biggest gains in wins
Here are the top six teams in Box-Toppers projected win improvement from 2022 to 2023:
Rangers, from 68 in 2022 to 90 in 2022, +22.
Angels, from 73 in 2022 to 88 in 2023, +15.
Padres, from 89 in 2022 to 101 in 2023, +12.
Royals, from 65 in 2022 to 77 in 2023, +12.
Twins, from 78 in 2022 to 87 in 2023, +9.
Cubs, from 74 in 2022 to 83 in 2022, +9.
Biggest declines in wins
Here are the top five teams projected to have the largest win decline from 2022 to 2023:
Astros, from 106 in 2022 to 85 in 2023, -21.
Athletics, from 60 in 2022 to 45 in 2023, -15.
Dodgers, from 111 in 2022 to 97 in 2023, -14.
Reds, from 62 in 2022 to 50 in 2023, -12.
Rays, from 86 in 2022 to 77 in 2023, -9.
About Box-Toppers—Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.
Box-Toppers strives for accuracy. See a mistake in a post? A wrong name, wrong team, grammar error, spelling goof, etc.? Thanks for pointing it out! Contact Box-Toppers here. Let's fix it and make it right.
Related
Box-Toppers 2023 preseason team rankings: Mets lead 2023 Box-Toppers preseason team rankings; Yankees top AL teams
Box-Toppers 2022 preseason prediction: Box-Toppers picks Dodgers over White Sox in 2022 World Series