Box-Toppers picks the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the 2022 World Series, beating the predicted American League champion Chicago White Sox.
Box-Toppers 2022 preseason predictions
Box-Toppers picks the Dodgers to beat the White Sox in the 2022 World Series. Here is the predicted order of finish of all 30 teams in their divisions and their projected win total.| American League | |||||||
| EAST | Wins | CENTRAL | Wins | WEST | Wins | ||
| Red Sox | 90 | White Sox | 94 | Mariners | 85 | ||
| Yankees* | 89 | Tigers | 83 | Astros* | 83 | ||
| Blue Jays* | 88 | Guardians | 81 | Angels | 75 | ||
| Rays | 83 | Twins | 78 | Rangers | 69 | ||
| Orioles | 58 | Royals | 72 | Athletics | 51 | ||
| National League | |||||||
| EAST | Wins | CENTRAL | Wins | WEST | Wins | ||
| Mets | 99 | Brewers | 91 | Dodgers | 111 | ||
| Braves* | 93 | Cardinals | 83 | Padres* | 92 | ||
| Phillies | 84 | Reds | 76 | Giants* | 90 | ||
| Marlins | 81 | Cubs | 73 | Rockies | 81 | ||
| Nationals | 71 | Pirates | 55 | Diamondbacks | 72 | ||
| * Wild card | |||||||
| ALCS: White Sox over Red Sox | |||||||
| NLCS: Dodgers over Mets | |||||||
| World Series: Dodgers over White Sox | |||||||
Box-Toppers projects the Dodgers will have the most wins among all teams—111—and will be the only team with more than 100 wins this season.
This is the second straight year Box-Toppers has predicted a Dodgers-over-White Sox World Series. Of course, it didn’t happen in 2021—the Atlanta Braves beat the Houston Astros.
The Dodgers are picked to win the National League pennant, beating the New York Mets in NL Championship Series. The Mets are predicted to have the second-most wins (99) among all teams and win the NL East Division.
The White Sox are forecast to win the American League pennant, winning the third-most games among all teams (94). They are projected to beat the Boston Red Sox (90 wins) in the AL Championship Series.
Baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement in 2022 expands postseason teams from 10 to 12. Here is a look at Box-Toppers projections for all 12 postseason spots (as seen in the 2022 preseason playoff picks graphics on this page):
American League
Top seed—Central Division Champion Chicago White Sox, receiving a bye in the AL Wild Card Round (94 wins).
Second seed—East Division Champion Boston Red Sox, receiving a bye in the AL Wild Card Round (90 wins).
Third seed—West Division Champion Seattle Mariners (85 wins).
Fourth seed—Top AL Wild Card New York Yankees (89 wins).
Fifth seed—Second-ranked AL Wild Card Toronto Blue Jays (88 wins).
Sixth seed—Third-ranked AL Wild Card Houston Astros (83 wins).
National League
Top seed—West Division Champion Los Angeles Dodgers, receiving a bye in the NL Wild Card Round (94 wins).
Second seed—East Division Champion New York Mets, receiving a bye in the NL Wild Card Round (99 wins).
Third seed—Central Division Champion Milwaukee Brewers (91 wins).
Fourth seed—Top NL Wild Card Atlanta Braves (93 wins).
Fifth seed—Second-ranked NL Wild Card San Diego Padres (92 wins).
Sixth seed—Third-ranked NL Wild Card San Francisco Giants (90 wins).
Wild Card Round
Here are Box-Toppers’ picks in the Wild Card Round in the American League:
Third-seed Mariners over sixth-seed Astros.
Fourth-seed Yankees over the fifth-seed Blue Jays.
And in the National League:
Third-seed Brewers over sixth-seed Giants.
Fourth-seed Braves over the fifth-seed Padres.
Division Series
In each league’s Division Series, the winner of the 3-6 Wild Card Round plays the league’s second seed and the winner of the 4-5 Wild Card Round plays the top seed. In the AL:
Second-seed Red Sox over third-seed Mariners.
Top-seed White Sox over fourth-seed Yankees.
In the NL:
Second-seed Mets over third-seed Brewers.
Top-seed Dodgers over fourth-seed Braves.
And as previously mentioned, Box-Toppers projects the White Sox over the Red Sox in the ALCS and the Dodgers over the Mets in the NLCS, with the Dodgers beating the White Sox in the World Series.
Box-Toppers’ win projections and team rankings are largely similar to Box-Toppers’ first-to-30th list of teams in its preseason rankings. However, the team rankings are based only on players’ 2021 Box-Toppers point totals. The win projections and division-by-division team rankings, shown here, are based on a formula that considers players’ Box-Toppers point totals going back to 2017, with added weight given to more recent statistics.
In addition, Box-Toppers preseason rankings were compiled nearly two weeks ago and several player transactions since then have shifted some Box-Toppers points among teams. For example, one notable recent change this week—the trade of pitcher Sean Manaea from the Athletics to the Padres—boosted San Diego from sixth to fifth in NL playoff seeding, passing the Giants. Manaea earned 15.7 Box-Toppers points in 2021, 13th overall and fourth among AL pitchers.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are projected to be baseball’s top team in 2022 after leading all teams in Box-Toppers points in 2021 with its players collectively accumulating 146.7. This, even though they finished second in the NL West behind the San Francisco Giants. The Giants were third in Box-Toppers points in 2021 (124.6) but led all teams with 107 wins, one more than the Dodgers (106).
The Dodgers are the top-ranked team despite losing pitcher Max Scherzer, who signed a free-agent deal with the Mets. Scherzer earned 25.1 Box-Toppers points in 2021 to lead all players.
The Dodgers also lost Kenley Jansen (6.0 Box-Toppers points, third among NL closing pitchers) to the Braves and Corey Seager (2.0 points, 16th among NL shortstops) to the Rangers.
The Dodgers biggest offseason pickup: Pitcher Tyler Anderson from the Mariners. His 7.0 Box-Toppers points in 2021 ranked 34th among AL pitchers. The Dodgers also picked up pitcher Andrew Heaney (5.0 Box-Toppers points in 2021 with the Angels and Yankees) and free agent Freddie Freeman (4.5 Box-Toppers points, seventh among NL first basemen), from the Braves.
Among top-ranked players returning to the Dodgers in 2022 are Julio Urias (19.1 Box-Toppers points, fourth overall, third among NL pitchers), Walker Buehler (16.7 Box-Toppers points, 10th overall, eighth among NL pitchers), Clayton Kershaw (13.4 Box-Toppers points, 12th among NL pitchers) and Trevor Bauer (9.4 Box-Toppers points, 28th among NL pitchers). Prominent batters returning to the Dodgers include Max Muncy (6.0 Box-Toppers points, fifth among NL first basemen) and Chris Taylor (4.7 Box-Toppers points, sixth among NL shortstops).
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox were Box-Toppers’ top AL team in 2021, with its players accumulating a combined 120.4 Box-Toppers points, third-most among all teams.
The White Sox most notable loss is Carlos Rodon to the Giants, 11.7 Box-Toppers points in 2021, 12th among AL pitchers.
The White Sox gained pitcher Vince Velasquez, who had 5.7 points in 2021 with the Phillies. He finished the season with the Padres, but earned no points while there. He ranked 56th among NL pitchers in 2021 Box-Toppers points. They also picked up free agent pitcher Johnny Cueto, 5.0 Box-Toppers points in 2021 with the Giants, 60th among NL pitchers.
Key players returning for the White Sox:
Dylan Cease, 14.4 Box-Toppers points in 2021, fifth among AL pitchers.
Lance Lynn, 12.4 Box-Toppers points in 2021, ninth among AL pitchers.
Lucas Giolito, 11.4 Box-Toppers points in 2021, 14th among AL pitchers.
Jose Abreu, 8.0 Box-Toppers points in 2021, sixth among AL batters, first among AL first basemen.
Liam Hendriks, 7.0 Box-Toppers points in 2021, first among AL closing pitchers.
New York Mets
Box-Toppers projects the New York Mets to win 99 games in 2022, which is 22 more than the 77 they won in 2021—the largest projected win increase among all teams.
That anticipated surge will help the Mets qualify for the postseason and advance all the way to the NL Championship Series.
The Mets had two of the biggest acquisitions of the offseason, as measured by Box-Toppers points, picking up 2021’s top-ranked Scherzer (25.1) and Chris Bassitt (13.7, seventh among AL pitchers in 2021), who was with the Athletics last season.
The Mets picked up Eduardo Escobar, who earned 6.5 points in 2021 with the Brewers, third among NL third basemen.
The Mets also picked up reliever Adam Ottavino (4.0), who was with the Red Sox and center fielder Starling Marte (2.5), who was with the Marlins and Athletics.
The Mets notably lost:
Marcus Stroman to the Cubs, 10.0 Box-Toppers points in 2021, 26th among NL pitchers.
Rich Hill to the Red Sox, 6.0 Box-Toppers points in 2021, 50th among NL pitchers.
Key players returning to the Mets:
Jacob deGrom, 16.7 Box-Toppers points in 2021, ninth overall, seventh among NL pitchers.
Taijuan Walker, 9.4 Box-Toppers points in 2021, 30th among NL pitchers.
Francisco Lindor, 7.0 Box-Toppers points in 2021, fourth among NL shortstops.
The Mets big question mark is health. Already, star pitcher deGrom is out with injury for at least the first month of the season and his appearances in 2021 (stellar though they were) were limited due to health.
Here are the top five teams in Box-Toppers projected win improvement from 2021 to 2022:
Mets, from 77 in 2021 to 99 in 2022, +22.
Diamondbacks, from 52 in 2021 to 72 in 2022, +20.
Marlins, from 67 in 2021 to 81 in 2022, +14.
Padres, from 79 in 2021 to 92 in 2022, +13.
Rangers, from 60 in 2021 to 69 in 2022, +9.
About Box-Toppers—Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.
Box-Toppers strives for accuracy. See a mistake in a post? A wrong name, wrong team, grammar error, spelling goof, etc.? Thanks for pointing it out! Contact Box-Toppers here. Let's fix it and make it right.
Related
Box-Toppers 2022 preseason team rankings: Dodgers top Box-Toppers 2022 preseason team rankings; White Sox top AL teams
Box-Toppers 2021 preseason prediction: Box-Toppers picks Dodgers over White Sox in 2021 World Series