NLCS Preview: Phillies favored to advance, though Diamondbacks have pitching edge

Box-Toppers favors the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League Championship Series, though the Arizona Diamondbacks have the slight edge among starting pitchers.

Both teams fought through higher-ranked teams to make their way to the league championship series, so neither is particularly highly ranked in Box-Toppers team rankings for 2023. The Phillies are ninth with its players accumulating 112.2 Box-Toppers points, fourth among NL teams. The Diamondbacks rank 14th, seventh among NL teams and lowest among all 12 postseason qualifiers (102.1 points).

How did they get here

Both teams finished second in their respective divisions, the Phillies in NL East with 90 wins, 14 games behind division champion Atlanta Braves and the Diamondbacks in the NL West with 84 wins, 16 games behind division champion Los Angeles Dodgers.

Both teams qualified for the postseason as two of the three Wild Card teams, the Phillies were fourth-seeded NL postseason team, while the Diamondbacks were the sixth-seed.

Both teams swept their opponent in two games in the Wild Card round of the playoffs—the Phillies swept the fifth-seeded Miami Marlins and the Diamondbacks swept the third-seeded Milwaukee Brewers.

Both teams then went on to upset their respective division champions in the NL Division Series to advance to this NL Championship Series. The Phillies upended the Braves in four games, 3-1, while the Diamondbacks swept the Dodgers in three games, 3-0.

Both teams Box-Toppers team rankings

The Phillies rank behind three now-vanquished teams in season Box-Toppers points—the Braves (second overall with 125.4 Box-Toppers points), the Dodgers (third with 123.8) and the Brewers (seventh with 115.8). The Diamondbacks (102.1) rank behind six teams—the Braves, Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies (112.2), San Diego Padres (108.1) and Miami Marlins (107.9). The Diamondbacks rank behind two teams that did not even qualify for the postseason, the Padres and the Seattle Mariners (13th overall with 103.7 points).

Key 18 players

The Phillies have the Box-Toppers points advantage among the key 18 players on the roster, which include the likely nine starting batters, three key bench players, three top starting pitchers, their top closing pitcher and two other key pitchers and/or relievers. Those key 18 players for each team are listed in the chart. Among those 18 players, the Phillies have 88.5 Box-Toppers points compared to 82.8 for the Diamondbacks.

Top 3 starting pitchers

The Diamondbacks hold the advantage on top three starters—33.4 points vs. 30.4 points. The series includes three of the top 10 NL pitchers in 2023 Box-Toppers points:

  • Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks, 16.7 Box-Toppers points, eighth overall, fourth among NL pitchers.

  • Zack Wheeler of the Phillies, 14.7 Box-Toppers points, 11th among all players, fifth among NL pitchers.

  • Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks, 13.0 points, 18th overall, seventh among NL pitchers.

Five of the six key starting pitchers for both teams have already won Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors in at least one 2023 postseason game. The Diamondbacks’ Gallen is the only one of the key six starters who has yet to win Player of the Game honors this postseason. Aaron Nola of the Phillies (12.0 points in 2023, 27th overall, 12th among NL pitchers) was Player of the Game twice this postseason on Oct. 4 and Oct. 11. He’s one of three players so far to win top player honors multiple times during this year’s playoffs.

The other starting pitchers have all earned Player of the Game honors once this postseason:

  • Wheeler was Player of the Game Oct. 3.

  • Kelly was Player of the Game Oct. 7.

  • Ranger Suarez of the Phillies (3.7 points, 275th overall, 83rd among NL pitchers) was Player of the Game Oct. 7.

  • Brandon Pfaadt of the Diamondbacks (3.7 points, 282nd overall, 88th among NL pitchers) was Player of the Game Oct. 11.

Starting 9 batters

The Phillies hold the advantage with its nine starting batters accumulating 36.4 points compared to the Diamondbacks’ 28.2. Right fielder Nick Castellanos leads Phillies batters with 7.0 points, 110th overall and 15th among NL batters. First baseman Christian Walker leads Diamondbacks batters with 6.0 points, 133rd overall and 21st among NL batters.

All other nine starting batters for both teams, their 2023 Box-Toppers point totals and overall rankings are included in the chart.

Key bench players

The Phillies have a slight edge among bench players (4.0 points to 3.5 points), though none of the six players had substantial Box-Toppers point totals in 2023 (chart).

Key relievers

Both teams three relievers had the same combined 17.7 Box-Toppers point total in 2023. However, three of the pitchers listed as relievers in the chart were mainly starters in 2023—Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks and Michael Lorenzen and Matt Strahm for the Phillies. But in the postseason with shorter rotations, secondary starters are sometimes used in relief.

Among closers, Paul Sewald of the Diamondbacks earned 5.0 Box-Toppers points in 2023, seventh among NL closers and Craig Kimbrel of the Phillies earned 4.0 points, 13th among NL closers. Kimbrel has an overwhelming lead in career Box-Toppers points among active NL closers with 88.1, ahead of second-place Josh Hader of the Padres with 46.4 points.

Conclusion

Though the Diamondbacks are the lowest ranked among all postseason teams, their pitching helps make them competitive. Still, the Phillies also have starting pitchers almost as strong and their batters fared better than the Diamondbacks in 2023. The Phillies have the edge.

NL Championship Series player comparisons

Likely starting players for the Diamondbacks and Phillies listed by position with their Box-Toppers point total (BTP) for the 2023 regular season and their overall rank among all players. Includes likely starting nine batters, three likely bench batters, three starting pitchers, top closing pitcher and two extra pitchers:
Pos Diamondbacks BTP Rank Pos Phillies BTP Rank
1B Christian Walker 6.0 133 1B Bryce Harper 3.0 312
2B Ketel Marte 4.5 210 2B Bryson Stott 3.0 329
SS Geraldo Perdomo 3.5 297 SS Trea Turner 5.0 182
3B Evan Longoria 2.7 380 3B Alec Bohm 6.4 126
CA Gabriel Moreno 2.0 505 CA J.T. Realmuto 2.5 391
CF Alek Thomas 0.0 896 CF Johan Rojas 3.0 376
LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 4.0 228 LF Cristian Pache 1.0 760
RF Corbin Carroll 3.0 366 RF Nick Castellanos 7.0 110
DH Thomas Pham 2.5 405 DH Kyle Schwarber 5.5 157
PH Pavin Smith 2.0 460 PH Brandon Marsh 2.0 443
PH Jace Peterson 1.5 547 PH Edmundo Sosa 2.0 447
PH Emmanuel Rivera 0.0 843 PH Jake Cave 0.0 887
SP Zac Gallen 16.7 8 SP Zack Wheeler 14.7 11
SP Merrill Kelly 13.0 18 SP Aaron Nola 12.0 27
SP Brandon Pfaadt 3.7 282 SP Ranger Suarez 3.7 275
CP Paul Sewald 5.0 174 CP Craig Kimbrel 4.0 256
PI Ryne Nelson 6.7 117 PI Michael Lorenzen 8.7 64
PI Kevin Ginkel 6.0 143 PI Matt Strahm 5.0 178
Totals 82.8 Totals 88.5
† Has yet to earn Box-Toppers points, so has no ranking.
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Monday’s pitching matchups (for more, see matchups chart):

AL Championship Series Game 2: Rangers lead Astros, 1-0

Rangers—Nathan Eovaldi, 9.7 points, 56th overall, 30th among AL pitchers. Eovaldi has won Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors twice this postseason—in the AL Wild Card win over the Rays on Oct. 4 and in the AL Division Series win over the Orioles on Oct. 10.)

Astros—Framber Valdez, 10.0 points, 48th overall, 26th among AL pitchers. Valdez has made one appearance this postseason, on Oct. 8 in an AL Division Series loss to the Twins.

More details—Preview of AL Championship Series.

NL Championship Series Game 1: Diamondbacks at Phillies

Diamondbacks—Zac Gallen, 16.7 points, eighth overall, fourth among NL pitchers. Gallen has started two games this postseason but was not Player of the Game in either game—Oct. 4 in the NL Wild Card win over the Brewers or Oct. 9 in the NL Division Series win over the Dodgers.

Phillies—Zack Wheeler, 14.7 Box-Toppers points, 11th among all players, fifth among NL pitchers. Wheeler was Box-Toppers Player of the Game Oct. 3 in the NL Wild Card win over the Marlins. He also appeared  Oct. 9 in the NL Division Series loss to the Braves.

A Box-Toppers look at Monday’s Championship Series pitching matchups

A Box-Toppers look at the upcoming day’s probable pitching matchups. Teams are paired below with visiting teams on top and home teams on the bottom. Each team’s starting pitcher is shown with their Box-Toppers point total from 2023 (’23), over a two-year period (’22-23), over a six-year period (’18-23) and their career point total.
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Game Starter ’23 ’22‑23 ’18‑23 Career
TEX Eovaldi, Nathan 2928 9.7 15.7 43.5 69.3
HOU Valdez, Framber 4048 10.0 26.0 41.4 41.4
ARI Gallen, Zac 4171 16.7 35.4 51.1 51.1
PHI Wheeler, Zack 3204 14.7 29.1 70.9 83.6
Starters subject to change.
* Player has yet to earn Box-Toppers points.
What are those numbers after players' names?
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About Box-Toppers

Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day. (No Box-Toppers points are awarded in postseason games.)

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