ALCS preview: Guardians hold Box-Toppers point advantages over top-seeded Rays

The American League’s top two-seeded teams play in the AL Championship Series, but Box-Toppers favors the second-seeded Cleveland Guardians over the top-seed Tampa Bay Rays.

The Rays have far more wins than the Guardians (98 vs. 85) but rank only marginally higher in Box-Toppers team rankings:

  • Rays: 115.0 combined Box-Toppers points in 2026, fifth overall, second among AL teams.

  • Guardians: 112.1 points, seventh overall, third among AL teams.

The Guardians hold the Box-Toppers edge over the Rays in several key categories:

  • Core roster: The Guardians have more Box-Toppers points than the Rays among the 18 most key postseason players: 98.1 vs. 89.8.

  • Starting pitchers: The top three likely Guardians starting pitchers have more combined points than the Rays: 40.8 vs. 28.7.

  • Starting batters: The top nine likely Guardians starting batters have a narrow lead in combined points over the Rays: 30.2 vs. 29.7.

  • Pitching depth: Looking at overall pitching depth—including primary relievers and secondary starters on postseason rosters—the Guardians hold a 24.1-to-19.4 point advantage.

The Rays hold the advantage among key position players coming off the bench—12.0-to-3.0.

How They Got Here

Both teams had byes in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. In the AL Division Series, the Rays swept the New York Yankees, 3-0, and the Guardians beat the Chicago White Sox, 3-2.

Key 18 Players

The Guardians have the Box-Toppers points advantage among the key 18 players on the roster, which include the likely nine starting batters, three key bench players, three top starting pitchers, their top closing pitcher and two other key pitchers and/or relievers. Those key 18 players for each team are listed in the chart. Among those 18 players, the Guardians have 98.1 Box-Toppers points compared to 89.8 for the Rays.

Top 3 Starting Pitchers

The Guardians lead this category, with their top three likely starters ahead by 40.8 to 28.7 points.

The Guardians’ top three likely starters:

  • Gavin Williams, 17.4 Box-Toppers points, 9th overall, 4th among AL pitchers. Projected Game 3 starter.

  • Joey Cantillo, 11.7 points, 26th overall, 13th among AL pitchers. Cantillo was used in a relief role in the ALDS, but was primarily a starter in the regular season.

  • Parker Messick, 11.7 points, 28th overall, 14th among AL pitchers. Projected Game 2 starter.

The Rays’ top three likely starters:

  • Drew Rasmussen, 15.0 points, 18th overall, 8th among AL pitchers. He is the Game 1 starter.

  • Nick Martinez, 8.0 points, 74th overall, 30th among AL pitchers. Projected Game 3 starter.

  • Freddy Peralta, 5.7 points, 148th overall, 57th among AL pitchers. Projected Game 2 starter.

See the chart for Box-Toppers point totals of likely starting pitchers in the series.

Starting 9 Batters

The Guardians hold a narrow Box-Toppers lead over the Rays among key position players, with their likely starting nine batters combining for 30.2 points compared to 29.7 for the Rays.

However, Yandy Díaz of the Rays is the only batter on either team among the top 10 AL batters in Box-Toppers points in 2026—his 7.5 points rank fifth, 85th overall.

Other key batters for the Rays:

Key batters for the Guardians:

  • Left fielder Angel Martinez, 6.5 points, 14th among AL batters. While Martinez leads Guardians batters, he was benched in Game 5 of the ALDS after going 0-for-15 with eight strikeouts in the first four games of the series.

  • Shortstop Brayan Rocchio, 6.0 points, 15th among AL batters.

  • Designated hitter Jo Adell, 5.5 points, 18th among AL batters.

  • Perennial star and third baseman José Ramírez, 3.5 points, 46th among AL batters. Ramírez missed about five weeks of the season with a broken left hamate bone (hand), limiting his production—he averaged 10.1 Box-Toppers points per season from 2021 to 2025.

See the chart for Box-Toppers point totals of likely starting nine batters in the series.

Key Bench Players

Among three key batters off the bench or used in platoon situations, the Rays hold an edge with 12.0 Box-Toppers points compared to 3.0 for the Guardians.

See the chart for details on bench players.

Pitching Depth

The Guardians have an advantage in this category, 24.1 points vs. 19.4 points.

The Guardians regular closing pitcher, Cade Smith, leads AL closers with 9.0 Box-Toppers points in 2026. Rays’ closer Bryan Baker has 3.0 points, 16th among AL closers.

Here is a look at the other top pitchers for each team listed in the chart:

Guardians

  • Foster Griffin, 9.4 points, 23rd among AL pitchers. Normally a starter, Griffin pitched in relief in the postseason, earning Player of the Game honors in ALDS Game 3 on Oct. 7. Prior to this, Griffin last earned Player of the Game honors July 8 with the Nationals, before his Aug. 3 trade to Cleveland. Griffin is the Game 1 starter.

  • Tanner Bibee, 5.7 points, 58th among AL pitchers. Also normally a starter, Bibee was used in a relief role in the postseason.

Rays

  • Ian Seymour, 8.7 points, 28th among AL pitchers. Seymour has won Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors twice in the 2026 postseason, most among all players—in ALDS Game 2 on Oct. 5 and in ALDS Game 3 on Oct. 7. Normally a starter, Seymour won top player honors in both games as a middle reliever.

  • Griffin Jax, 7.7 points, 35th among AL pitchers. Jax, also normally a starter, was used in a middle relief role in the ALDS.

See the chart for details on pitching depth.

Conclusion

Though the Rays had far more wins in the regular season (98 vs. 85), the Guardians were not far behind in cumulative Box-Toppers points (115.0 vs. 112.1).

The Guardians enter the series relatively healthy, while the Rays have ruled out pitcher Shane McClanahan (7.0 points in 2026), who missed time with back and forearm tightness.

However, the Rays are likely fresher and more rested. Tampa Bay swept the Yankees in three games in the ALDS and enjoyed four days off, while the Guardians were pushed to five games by the White Sox, leaving them with only one full day of rest before the ALCS. Furthermore, the Rays consistently defy expectations, performing better than their Box-Toppers numbers might suggest—for example, Box-Toppers projected them in the preseason to finish last in the AL East with just 66 wins.

Still, with Cleveland holding key Box-Toppers point advantages across the core roster, starting pitchers, starting batters, and pitching depth, the Guardians carry the overall Box-Toppers edge in the series.

AL Championship Series player comparisons

Likely starting players for the Guardians and Rays are listed by position with their Box-Toppers point total (BTP) for the 2026 regular season and their overall rank among all players. Includes likely starting nine batters, three likely bench batters, three starting pitchers, top closing pitcher and two extra pitchers:
Pos Guardians BTP Rank   Pos Rays BTP Rank
1B Nathaniel Lowe 0.0 822   1B Jonathan Aranda 2.7 371
2B Travis Bazzana 3.5 291   2B Richie Palacios 2.0 482
SS Brayan Rocchio 6.0 136   SS Taylor Walls 1.0 646
3B José Ramírez 3.5 269   3B Junior Caminero 5.0 167
CA Patrick Bailey 0.0 841   CA Liam Hicks 4.5 215
CF Steven Kwan 1.0 606   CF Jonny DeLuca 2.0 476
LF Angel Martínez 6.2 124   LF Chandler Simpson 2.0 460
RF Chase DeLauter 4.5 218   RF Victor Mesa Jr. 3.0 360
DH Jo Adell 5.5 157   DH Yandy Díaz 7.5 85
PH Rhys Hoskins 1.0 598   PH Ryan Vilade 4.5 220
PH David Fry 1.0 689   PH Nick Fortes 4.0 251
PH Petey Halpin 1.0 762   PH Ben Williamson 3.5 299
SP Gavin Williams 17.4 9   SP Drew Rasmussen 15.0 18
SP Joey Cantillo 11.7 26   SP Nick Martinez 8.0 74
SP Parker Messick 11.7 28   SP Freddy Peralta 5.7 148
CP Cade Smith 9.0 56   CP Bryan Baker 3.0 335
PI Foster Griffin 9.4 48   PI Ian Seymour 8.7 65
PI Tanner Bibee 5.7 149   PI Griffin Jax 7.7 81
  Totals 98.1       Totals 89.8  
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Monday’s pitching matchups (for more, see matchups chart below):

NL Championship Series Game 2, Brewers lead Dodgers, 1-0

Dodgers—Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 17.4 Box-Toppers points in 2026, 8th overall, 5th among NL pitchers. He was Player of the Game Oct. 6 in the NL Division Series Game 3 win over the Braves.

Brewers—Logan Henderson, 10.4 Box-Toppers points in 2026, 37th overall, 18th among NL pitchers.

American League Championship Series Game 1, Guardians at Rays

Guardians—Foster Griffin, 9.4 Box-Toppers points in 2026, 48th overall, 23rd among AL pitchers. Griffin was Player of the Game Oct. 7 in the ALDS Game 3 win over the White Sox, pitching in middle relief.

Rays—Drew Rasmussen, 15.0 Box-Toppers points in 2026, 18th overall, 8th among AL pitchers. Rasmussen was Player of the Game Oct. 3 in the ALDS Game 1 win over the Yankees.

A Box-Toppers look at Monday’s pitching matchups

A Box-Toppers look at the upcoming day's probable pitching matchups. Teams are paired below with visiting teams on top and home teams on the bottom. Each team's starting pitcher is shown with their Box-Toppers point total from 2026 ('26), this year and last year ('25-26), over six years ('21-26), and their career point total.
Game Starter ’26 ’25‑26 ’21‑26 Career
LAD Yamamoto, Yoshinobu 4964 17.4 35.1 41.5 41.5
MIL Henderson, Logan 5150 10.4 13.4 13.4 13.4
CLE Griffin, Foster 5317 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4
TB Rasmussen, Drew 4547 15.0 24.7 46.2 46.2
Starters subject to change.
* Player has yet to earn any career Box-Toppers points.
What are those numbers after players' names?
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About Box-Toppers

Box-Toppers tracks who contributes most to their team’s victory. Using standard box score statistics, we identify the Player of the Game for every MLB contest. In the regular season, winners earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point, with bonus points awarded to the top overall and league-specific players of the day. (No Box-Toppers points are awarded in postseason games.) More on how Box-Toppers works.

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