NLCS preview: Brewers hold edge over Dodgers in battle of Box-Toppers’ top two teams

The Los Angeles Dodgers lead Box-Toppers’ 2026 team rankings after holding the top spot nearly wire-to-wire. Favoring them to advance past the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Championship Series to reach their third straight World Series seems obvious.

However, top-seeded Milwaukee—ranking second in Box-Toppers points just behind Los Angeles—presents a formidable challenge. In this heavyweight matchup of baseball’s top two teams, the Brewers hold key Box-Toppers advantages that tilt the series in Milwaukee’s favor:

  • Total Box-Toppers points: While the Brewers trailed the Dodgers in total team Box-Toppers points in 2026 (136.3 to 142.7), when comparing the key core 18 players on each likely postseason roster, the Brewers have the edge (103.3 to 99.2).

  • Starting pitchers: The top three likely Brewers starting pitchers have more combined points than the Dodgers: 45.2 vs. 40.5.

  • Bench players: The top three key bench players for the Brewers have more combined points: 4.5 vs. 1.0.

  • Pitching depth: Looking at overall pitching depth—including primary relievers and secondary starters on postseason rosters—the Brewers hold a 25.7-to-12.1 point advantage.

The Dodgers hold a huge points advantage among the key starting nine batters: 45.6 vs. 27.9. But that total includes Shohei Ohtani, who has earned 8.7 of his total 15.7 points as a pitcher. Still, even subtracting 8.7 points, the Dodgers hold a big advantage in that category (36.9 vs. 27.9).

How They Got Here

The Brewers have baseball’s overall best winning percentage (.636) and are the top NL playoff seed and hold home-field advantage for as far as they advance in the postseason. They had a bye from the Wild Card round of the playoffs and beat the San Diego Padres, 3-1, in the best-of-five-game NL Division Series to advance to the NLCS.

The Dodgers had the NL’s second-best winning percentage (.617) and were the second-seeded NL playoff team. They also had a bye from the Wild Card round of the playoffs and beat the Atlanta Braves, 3-1, in the best-of-five-game NL Division Series to advance to the NLCS.

The Dodgers led all teams in 22 of the 25 Box-Toppers rankings reports over the season. They missed leading all teams in just these three:

  • April 2: Ranked ninth overall (5.2 Box-Toppers points) in the season's first report.

  • May 7: Ranked second overall behind the New York Yankees (33.9 to 31.0).

  • July 23: Ranked second overall (and second in the NL) behind Milwaukee (81.6 to 81.5), the only week in the season the Brewers led.

Key 18 Players

The Brewers have the Box-Toppers points advantage among the key 18 players on the roster, which include the likely nine starting batters, three key bench players, three top starting pitchers, their top closing pitcher and two other key pitchers and/or relievers. Those key 18 players for each team are listed in the chart. Among those 18 players, the Brewers have 103.3 Box-Toppers points compared to 99.2 for the Dodgers.

Top 3 Starting Pitchers

The Brewers lead this category, with their top three likely starters ahead by 45.2 to 40.5 points.

The Brewers’ top three likely starters:

The Dodgers’ top three likely starters:

  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 17.4 Box-Toppers points, 8th overall, 5th among NL pitchers. He was Player of the Game Oct. 6 in the NL Division Series Game 3 win over the Braves.

  • Tarik Skubal, 14.7 points, 19th overall, 11th among NL pitchers. He was Player of the Game Oct. 3 in the NLDS Game 1 win over the Braves.

  • Tyler Glasnow, 8.4 points, 70th overall, 29th among NL pitchers.

See the chart for Box-Toppers point totals of likely starting pitchers in the series.

Starting 9 Batters

The Dodgers hold a distinct advantage in offensive Box-Toppers production, with their likely starting nine batters combining for 45.6 points compared to 27.9 for the Brewers.

The Shohei Ohtani Factor

Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani is the top-ranked batter in the series and the only player on either roster among the top 10 NL batters. While his 15.7 total Box-Toppers points lead all NL batters, his total includes 8.7 points earned as a pitcher before a knee injury ended his pitching season in early July.

Even evaluating Ohtani purely on his offensive output:

  • His 7.0 points earned as a designated hitter would still lead all batters in this series and rank 16th among NL batters.

  • Subtracting Ohtani’s entire 15.7-point total still leaves the remaining eight Dodgers starters ahead of Milwaukee's starting nine, 29.9 to 27.9.

Ohtani’s offensive production slowed late in the season while dealing with right biceps discomfort, neck tightness, and left knee instability. After hitting his 30th home run on Aug. 18, he endured a homerless streak where he batted .157, last earning Player of the Game honors on Aug. 17.

Secondary Offensive Leaders

Behind Ohtani, the top starting batters for each club include:

  • Dodgers: Center fielder Andy Pages — 6.7 points (18th among NL batters).

  • Brewers: Catcher William Contreras — 5.7 points (29th among NL batters).

Lower-Ranked Starters & Notable Names

Several prominent stars on both rosters posted lower Box-Toppers totals in 2026:

Dodgers:

  • Third baseman Max Muncy — 3.7 points (54th among NL batters).

  • First baseman Freddie Freeman — 3.5 points (60th among NL batters).

  • Shortstop Mookie Betts — 2.5 points (92nd among NL batters).

  • Catcher Will Smith — 0.0 points in 2026 (ranked 216th based on prior-season tiebreakers).

Brewers:

  • Left fielder Jackson Chourio — 2.5 points (93rd among NL batters).

  • Designated hitter Christian Yelich — 2.0 points (108th among NL batters).

  • Shortstop Cooper Pratt — 0.0 points across 74 career games (unranked, has not yet earned Player of the Game honors).

See the chart for Box-Toppers point totals of likely starting nine batters in the series.

Key Bench Players

Among three key batters off the bench or used in platoon situations, the Brewers hold an edge with 4.5 Box-Toppers points compared to 1.0 for the Dodgers.

Two Dodgers players used in these roles in the postseason earned no Box-Toppers points in 2026—Miguel Rojas and Enrique Hernández. One player on the NLDS roster who did not play, Hunter Feduccia, earned 1.0 point in 2026.

See the chart for details on bench players.

Pitching Depth

The Brewers have an advantage in this category, 25.7 points vs. 12.1 points.

Brewers regular closing pitcher Trevor Megill has 4.0 Box-Toppers points, 7th among NL closers.

Dodgers recent regular closing pitcher Edwin Díaz, who closed two of three Los Angeles wins in the NLDS, has 2.0 Box-Toppers points, 16th among closers. Díaz missed much of the season on the injured list, recovering from elbow surgery and battling neck inflammation.

Here is a look at the other top pitchers for each team listed in the chart:

Dodgers

  • Roki Sasaki, 5.4 points. Normally a starter, Sasaki has been used as a reliever in the postseason.

  • Blake Snell, 4.7. Snell is also normally a starter and has started one postseason game.

Brewers

  • Kyle Harrison, 14.7 points, 12th among NL pitchers. Normally a starter—and for much of the season, one of the best in baseball—Harrison struggled down the stretch and was relegated to the bullpen, making six total appearances in September with only 8.2 innings pitched with a 13.50 earned run average. He has yet to appear in the postseason but was on the NLDS roster. His 14.7 points are second among Brewers players.

  • Chad Patrick, often used during the season as a middle reliever, however, he has yet to make a 2026 postseason appearance despite being on the NLDS roster. His 7.0 points rank 1st among NL middle relievers.

See the chart for details on pitching depth.

Conclusion

The Dodgers have been Box-Toppers’ most dominant team of the season, holding the top spot in team rankings practically from start to finish. Their combined starting nine batters are cumulatively far more productive than Milwaukee's, and they enter October seeking a third consecutive World Series title.

Yet top-seeded Milwaukee enters the series with more wins and a main roster fully capable of matching Los Angeles. The Brewers feature 2026 Box-Toppers Player of the Year Jacob Misiorowski (whose 26.1 points led all players) and a deep bullpen stacked with high-volume point producers who have yet to even be called upon this postseason.

Even the headline team totals reveal a much tighter matchup upon closer inspection. While Los Angeles holds a 142.7 to 136.3 edge in total 2026 Box-Toppers points, that total includes 8.7 points Shohei Ohtani earned as a pitcher. Since Ohtani will not pitch in the NLCS, removing his pitching points reduces the Dodgers' active total to 134.0—just behind Milwaukee. While such adjustments cut both ways—the Brewers are similarly without starters Brandon Woodruff and his 3.0 points (injury) and Brandon Sproat and his 4.0 points (sent to minors)—it underscores how evenly matched these two clubs truly are once active rosters are factored in.

The Dodgers may carry the pedigree, but the Brewers hold the edge in the series.

NL Championship Series player comparisons

Likely starting players for the Dodgers and Brewers are listed by position with their Box-Toppers point total (BTP) for the 2026 regular season and their overall rank among all players. Includes likely starting nine batters, three likely bench batters, three starting pitchers, top closing pitcher and two extra pitchers:
Pos Dodgers BTP Rank   Pos Brewers BTP Rank
1B Freddie Freeman 3.5 275   1B Jake Bauers 5.0 176
2B Tommy Edman 4.5 217   2B Brice Turang 4.7 201
SS Mookie Betts 2.5 382   SS Cooper Pratt 0.0 —*
3B Max Muncy 3.7 260   3B Joey Ortiz 2.0 450
CA Will Smith 0.0 976   CA William Contreras 5.7 151
CF Andy Pages 6.7 113   CF Garrett Mitchell 4.0 255
LF Teoscar Hernández 4.5 212   LF Jackson Chourio 2.5 383
RF Kyle Tucker 4.5 210   RF Sal Frelick 2.0 456
DH Shohei Ohtani 15.7 15   DH Christian Yelich 2.0 411
PH Hunter Feduccia 1.0 753   PH Gary Sánchez 2.0 445
PH Miguel Rojas 0.0 903   PH Andrew Vaughn 1.5 543
PH Enrique Hernández 0.0 955   PH David Hamilton 1.0 663
SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto 17.4 8   SP Jacob Misiorowski 26.1 1
SP Tarik Skubal 14.7 19   SP Logan Henderson 10.4 37
SP Tyler Glasnow 8.4 70   SP Dustin May 8.7 63
CP Edwin Díaz 2.0 417   CP Trevor Megill 4.0 234
PI Roki Sasaki 5.4 161   PI Kyle Harrison 14.7 20
PI Blake Snell 4.7 197   PI Chad Patrick 7.0 99
  Totals 99.2       Totals 103.3  
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Sunday’s pitching matchups (for more, see matchups chart below):

NL Championship Series Game 1, Dodgers at Brewers

Dodgers—Tarik Skubal, 14.7 Box-Toppers points in 2026, 19th overall, 11th among NL pitchers. He was Player of the Game Oct. 3 in the NLDS Game 1 win over the Braves.

Brewers—Jacob Misiorowski, 26.1 Box-Toppers points in 2026, 1st overall, 1st among NL pitchers. He started in the NLDS Game 1 win over the Padres Oct. 3 but did not win Player of the Game honors.

A Box-Toppers look at Sunday’s pitching matchups

A Box-Toppers look at the upcoming day's probable pitching matchups. Teams are paired below with visiting teams on top and home teams on the bottom. Each team's starting pitcher is shown with their Box-Toppers point total from 2026 ('26), this year and last year ('25-26), over six years ('21-26), and their career point total.
Game Starter ’26 ’25‑26 ’21‑26 Career
LAD Skubal, Tarik 4414 14.7 36.8 88.0 88.0
MIL Misiorowski, Jacob 5200 26.1 32.1 32.1 32.1
Starters subject to change.
* Player has yet to earn any career Box-Toppers points.
What are those numbers after players' names?
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About Box-Toppers

Box-Toppers tracks who contributes most to their team’s victory. Using standard box score statistics, we identify the Player of the Game for every MLB contest. In the regular season, winners earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point, with bonus points awarded to the top overall and league-specific players of the day. (No Box-Toppers points are awarded in postseason games.) More on how Box-Toppers works.

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