ALCS Preview: Astros favored because of pitching advantage, but Yankees have bats

Box-Toppers numbers favor the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees in the upcoming American League Championship Series.

Both teams were the two top seeds among AL postseason teams (Astros in first, Yankees in second) and both teams dominated the AL all season, with one or the other leading Box-Toppers team rankings nearly every week of the season. The lone exception: For three weeks early in the season when the hot-starting Los Angeles Angels led AL teams. That didn’t last long.

While the Yankees built a dominating lead among AL teams that lasted 13 weeks, they drooped slightly late in the season while the Astros surged, finishing in the lead among AL teams for six of the final eight weeks of the season.

Astros players accumulated 131.4 Box-Toppers points in 2022, first among AL teams, but second overall behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (133.1). They have the most points of all teams remaining in the postseason.

Yankees players accumulated 125.9 Box-Toppers points in 2022, second among AL teams and fourth among all teams. They have the second-most points of all teams remaining in the postseason, behind the Astros.

Both teams received first-round byes and did not play in the Wild Card round. The Astros beat the Seattle Mariners in a three-game sweep in the AL Division Series. The Yankees beat the Cleveland Guardians (three games to two) in their AL Division Series.

Probable players—The Astros hold the advantage over the Yankees when comparing each team’s core group of 18 players who have been appearing regularly in the postseason.

As shown in the chart below, the group of 18 Astros players have a combined 106.7 Box-Toppers points, compared to a comparable group of 18 Yankees players with a combined 101.8 points.

Starting pitchers—The Astros also have the advantage among starting pitchers. The Astros top three likely starters have a combined 47.4 Box-Toppers points while the Yankees comparable three starters have a combined 37.5 points.

(A look at Wednesday’s Game 1 starters.)

Astros top three starters are:

Yankees top three starters are:

  • Gerrit Cole, 15.4 points, 17th among all players, eighth among AL pitchers.

  • Nestor Cortes, 15.4 points, 19th overall, ninth among AL pitchers.

  • Luis Severino, 6.7 points, 109th overall, 42nd among AL pitchers.

Both teams have other starters with limited or relief use in the postseason, including Jameson Taillon of the Yankees (10.7 points, 48th overall, 22nd among AL pitchers, the listed Game 1 starter), Luis Garcia of the Astros (9.7 points, 57th overall, 27th among AL pitchers) and Jose Urquidy (8.0 points, 77th overall, 33rd among AL pitchers). (It should be noted that Garcia’s relief appearance this postseason was five innings to close the 18-inning ALDS Game 2 win, 1-0, over the Mariners.)

Starting batting lineup—The Yankees hold the edge among the likely starting nine in the batting lineup. The Yankees starting nine have a combined 36.2 Box-Toppers points, compared to 32.1 for the Astros.

The Yankees are led by outfielder Aaron Judge, who leads all AL batters with 13.2 Box-Toppers points, 28th overall.

The Astros have two among the top 10 AL batters in Box-Toppers points—designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (third with 8.7 points, 70th overall) and third baseman Alex Bregman (fourth with 8.7 points, 71st overall). (Though they both have 8.7 points, Alvarez ranks higher because he had more 2021 points—7.0 vs. 3.5.)

There are three starting batters in the series who did not earn Box-Toppers points in 2022—Isiah Kiner-Falefa of the Yankees, Yuli Gurriel of the Astros and Jeremy Pena of the Astros. Kiner-Falefa and Gurriel are ranked based on their Box-Toppers point total from previous season. Pena is not ranked because the rookie who played 136 games in 2022 has yet to earn his first career Player of the Game honor and so has 0.0 career points.

Bench—The top three likely reserve batters for the Yankees have 9.0 Box-Toppers points while the Astros top three have 3.5. Most notable among the bench players is Matt Carpenter of the Yankees (4.5 points, 209th overall, 35th among AL batters).

Relief pitching—The Astros have the advantage when comparing the top three likely relief pitchers. The Astros top three relievers have a combined 23.7 Box-Toppers points, while the Yankees have 19.1 points.

Astros closer Ryan Pressly has 6.0 Box-Toppers points, 131st overall, 49th among AL pitchers and second among AL closers. Yankees closer Clay Holmes has 4.0 Box-Toppers points, 243rd overall, 75th among AL pitchers and 11th among AL closers.

Both teams have used regular season starters as relievers in the postseason, as mentioned earlier. Other notable relievers in the series include Clarke Schmidt of the Yankees (4.4 points), Lou Trivino of the Yankees (1.0), Rafael Montero of the Astros (1.0), Bryan Abreu of the Astros (1.0) and Hunter Brown of the Astros (1.0).

Conclusion—Early in the season, the Yankees seemed the favorite to race to the title. They slumped, rebounded and are still one of the best teams in baseball. But the Astros currently are the force to be reckoned with. The Astros, with Justin Verlander leading the way, have dominant starting pitchers with several to spare, like Luis Garcia, who have been used in relief. While the Yankees, led by Aaron Judge, may have more to offer offensively, but it may not be enough to overcome the Astros.

It should be a close, interesting series, but it should be the Astros that go to the World Series.

AL Championship Series player comparisons

Likely starting players for the Yankees and Astros listed by position with their Box-Toppers point total (BTP) for the 2022 regular season and their overall rank among all players. Includes likely starting nine batters, three likely bench batters, three starting pitchers, top closing pitcher and two extra pitchers:
Pos Yankees BTP Rank Pos Astros BTP Rank
1B Anthony Rizzo 4.0 237 1B Yuli Gurriel 0.0 111
2B Gleyber Torres 4.0 249 2B Jose Altuve 4.0 227
SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.0 892 SS Jeremy Pena 0.0 †
3B Josh Donaldson 5.0 178 3B Alex Bregman 8.7 71
CA Jose Trevino 2.5 380 CA Martin Maldonado 2.7 352
CF Harrison Bader 1.0 595 CF Chas McCormick 1.0 618
LF Oswaldo Cabrera 1.0 722 LF Yordan Alvarez 8.7 70
RF Aaron Judge 13.2 28 RF Kyle Tucker 4.5 205
DH Giancarlo Stanton 5.5 149 DH Trey Mancini 2.5 372
PH Matt Carpenter 4.5 209 PH Aledmys Díaz 2.5 378
PH Aaron Hicks 2.5 388 PH Mauricio Dubón 1.0 693
PH Kyle Higashioka 2.0 427 PH Christian Vázquez 0.0 978
SP Gerrit Cole 15.4 17 SP Justin Verlander 26.0 1
SP Nestor Cortes 15.4 19 SP Framber Valdez 16.0 14
SP Luis Severino 6.7 109 SP Lance McCullers 5.4 156
CP Clay Holmes 4.0 243 CP Ryan Pressly 6.0 131
PI Jameson Taillon 10.7 48 PI Luis Garcia 9.7 57
PI Clarke Schmidt 4.4 219 PI Jose Urquidy 8.0 77
Totals 101.8 Totals 106.7
† Has yet to earn Box-Toppers points, so has no ranking.
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American League Championship Series Game 1, Yankees at Astros

Yankees—Jameson Taillon, 10.7 Box-Toppers points in 2022, 48th among all players, 22nd among AL pitchers.

Astros—Justin Verlander, 26.0 Box-Toppers points in 2022, first among all players, first among AL pitchers.

Taillon has made one 2022 postseason appearance, pitching the 10th inning in the Oct. 14 AL Division Series Game 2 loss to the Guardians, giving up the two runs that gave Cleveland the lead and the win (0IP 3H 2R 0BB 0K L).

Verlander did not earn Player of the Game honors in his only 2022 postseason appearance—an Oct. 11 AL Division Series Game 1 start against the Mariners. Though Verlander had a rough outing (4IP 10H 6R BB 3K ND), the Astros came back and won the game.

See the Box-Toppers point totals of all Yankees and Astros players who earned Player of the Game honors in 2022.

A Box-Toppers look at Wednesday’s pitching matchups

A Box-Toppers look at the upcoming day’s probable pitching matchups. Teams are paired below with visiting teams on top and home teams on the bottom. Each team’s starting pitcher is shown with their Box-Toppers point total from 2022 (’22), over a two-year period (’21-22), over a six-year period (’17-22) and their career point total.
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Game Starter ’22 ’21‑22 ’17‑22 Career
PHI Nola, Aaron 3569 16.0 26.7 81.0 89.7
SD Snell, Blake 3688 13.1 24.5 70.4 74.4
NYY Taillon, Jameson 3658 10.7 19.7 41.1 46.1
HOU Verlander, Justin 2112 26.0 26.0 93.3 232.6
Starters subject to change.
What are those numbers after players' names?
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About Box-Toppers—Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.

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