Bellinger, Trout win MVP Awards ahead of Box-Toppers’ decidedly outlier picks—Cole, Ozuna

Cody Bellinger of the Dodgers, who ranked third among National League batters in Box-Toppers points in 2019 with 11.2, was voted NL Most Valuable Player Thursday.

Box-Toppers Most Valuable Player award ballot

Here are Box-Toppers' ballot selections for the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America (IBWAA) 2019 Most Valuable Player awards. The ballot required voters to pick the top 10 players in each league.
Players are shown with their team and their Box-Toppers point (BTP) total for 2019.

AL Most Valuable Player
Player Team BTP
1 Gerrit Cole Astros 32.2
2 Justin Verlander Astros 27.5
3 Nelson Cruz Twins 12.5
4 Gleyber Torres Yankees 12.0
5 Albert Pujols Angels 11.0
6 Jorge Soler Royals 10.2
7 Alex Bregman Astros 10.0
8 Rafael Devers Red Sox 9.5
9 Charlie Morton Rays 18.8
10 Shane Bieber Indians 18.1
NL Most Valuable Player
Player Team BTP
1 Marcell Ozuna Cardinals 12.0
2 Christian Yelich Brewers 11.7
3 Cody Bellinger Dodgers 11.2
4 Stephen Strasburg Nationals 20.7
5 Freddie Freeman Braves 10.2
6 Josh Bell Pirates 9.7
7 Jacob deGrom Mets 19.1
8 Nolan Arenado Rockies 9.0
9 Josh Hader Brewers 17.7
10 Michael Conforto Mets 8.7
Box-Toppers gives batters a generous, if somewhat arbitrary, benefit of the doubt in these rankings. In cases where batters are directly compared to pitchers, Box-Toppers ranks batters as if their season Box-Toppers point total were doubled. For example, in rankings for NL MVP, Marcell Ozuna ranks first with 12.0 points even though several pitchers have more points (most notably, Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals, ranked fourth in NL MVP voting with 20.7). Though Ozuna has fewer points than Strasburg, Box-Toppers arbitrarily doubles batters point totals in figuring these rankings, which would give Ozuna 24.0 points, beating Strasburg's 20.7. While MVP is traditionally a batter's award, it has been awarded to pitchers either when they have a dominant season, no batters particularly rise to the occasion—or both.

And Mike Trout of the Angels, who ranked ninth among American League batters in Box-Toppers points in 2019 with 8.7, was voted AL Most Valuable Player.

Voting was done by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA). The results were similar in the separate vote by the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America (IBWAA), in which Box-Toppers has a vote.

Box-Toppers’ outlier picks in the separate IBWAA balloting for the award were not close to winning the awards Thursday. (See detailed MVP results below, including order of finish, vote totals and each player’s Box-Toppers points and rankings for 2019.)

We chose Astros pitcher Gerrit Cole for the AL MVP. He led all players with 32.2 Box-Toppers points, more than 2.5 times the points as any of the league’s batters and the fourth-highest single-season point total since Box-Toppers tracking began in 1995. He finished 10th in AL MVP voting. Nelson Cruz of the Twins led all AL batters in 2019 Box-Toppers points with 12.5. He finished ninth in AL MVP voting. (He received our third-place vote for AL MVP.)

In the NL, we chose the leader among NL batters in 2019 Box-Toppers points, Marcell Ozuna of the Cardinals. He led with 12.0 Box-Toppers points, but received no votes in BBWAA balloting. Bellinger, the NL MVP, was our third choice. Christian Yelich of the Brewers, the runner-up, was our second choice.

In Box-Toppers defense, most people decide MVP by looking at the accumulation of individual statistics at the end of the year combining that with the accumulation of anecdotes they remember throughout the season. If I were doing that, I probably wouldn’t choose Ozuna, either. But Box-Toppers, by design, avoids that, looking at each game as a discrete unit and determining by consistent objective measure, game-by-game, which player most helped that team to win that game. This year, Ozuna won Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors 10 times, including winning NL Batter of the Day honors four times. That’s 12.0 points, that’s more than any other NL batter. Ozuna, therefore, gets Box-Toppers’ vote as NL MVP.

Bellinger and Yelich were the hyped candidates—complete with a TV commercial—throughout the season. And for certain periods, they lived up to the hype. Bellinger came out on fire, leading NL batters in Box-Toppers points for the first 13 weeks of the season and was on pace to break the single-season Box-Toppers point record for batters (20.6) set by Lance Berkman of the Astros in 2006. But after earning Player of the Game honors eight times through June 13, Bellinger earned top player honors only two more times in the final half of the season.

Despite that, Bellinger still regained the lead among NL batters Aug. 1 and led through Aug. 31. Yelich, 2018’s NL MVP, took the lead Sept. 1 with 10.7 points. He was leading on Sept. 10 with 11.7 when he fractured his kneecap and was out for the season. Ozuna rose to the lead for the first time in the season on Sept. 16, a day he earned 1.5 Box-Toppers points as NL Batter of the Day, giving him 12.0 points. He led for the final two weeks of the season.

Part of the problem is that batters’ overall performances are down. Before 2012, a batter leading his league in Box-Toppers points generally had around 15.0. While home runs are on the increase, strikeouts are on the rise, too, and that has pitchers winning Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors at a historically larger percentage than batters. 

Until 2009, batters made up at least one-third of all players earning at least 10 Box-Toppers points each season. In fact, from 1995 to 2009, 44.5 percent of all players earning 10 Box-Toppers points in a season were batters. But after 2009, batters made up only 16.8 percent of all players earning 10 Box-Toppers points in a season. The best year was 2015 when 10 of the 47 players with 10 points (21.3 percent) were batters. That number dipped below 10 percent in 2014 (8.6) and 2018 (9.6) but was 18.0 percent in 2019 (nine of the 50 players earning 10 points were batters).

Batters’ Box-Toppers point totals were held down so much in the AL in 2019 that Box-Toppers voted pitchers for the first two places on its AL MVP ballot, Astros teammates Cole and Justin Verlander (who finished second overall with 27.5 points). Top batter Cruz had 12.5 points, fewer than half the points of either Houston starter. To give batters an arbitrary benefit of a doubt, we double batters Box-Toppers point totals in comparing and ranking them to and among pitchers.  That would give Cruz 25.0 points, which still didn’t measure up to either Cole or Verlander.

Trout, voted AL MVP, was not even the top batter in Box-Toppers points on his team. That was Albert Pujols, who had 11.0 points in what Box-Toppers viewed as a resurgent season for the 39-year-old veteran All-Star. His previous season with more than 10 points was 2011 with the Cardinals (12.5). Pujols finished third among AL batters and received our fifth-place vote for AL MVP. We did not include Trout on our AL MVP ballot.

Trout has been among Box-Toppers top 10 AL batters in six of his nine seasons but has never led AL batters in a season. However, he ranks first among AL batters in Box-Toppers points from 2014-2019 with 54.7 accumulated over that period. Second place is Edwin Encarnacion with 48.0.

Bellinger received 19 of the 30 first-place votes for NL MVP from baseball writers. Yelich received 10.

In the AL, Trout received 17 of the 30 first-place votes and Alex Bregman of the Astros received 13. Among the top three AL MVP finalists announced prior to the vote, Bregman was Box-Toppers’ highest-ranked pick for the award—our seventh choice. Bregman had 10.0 Box-Toppers points in 2019, fifth among AL batters.

In our MVP ballots, seven pitchers received MVP votes—Cole, Verlander, Charlie Morton of the Rays, Shane Bieber of the Indians, Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals, Jacob deGrom of the Mets and Josh Hader of the Brewers.

Of the nine batters with 10 or more Box-Toppers points this season, only two received no MVP votes Thursday:

  • Ozuna (12.0 points, first among NL batters).

  • Pujols (11.0 points, third among AL batters).

Here are results from the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America votes for Most Valuable Player. 

AL MVP

NL MVP 

  • 1st—Cody Bellinger, Dodgers – 1422 points

  • 2nd—Christian Yelich, Brewers – 1283

  • 3rd—Anthony Rendon, Nationals – 969

  • 4th—Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks – 677

  • 5th—Ronald Acuna, Jr., Braves – 572

  • 6th—Nolan Arenado, Rockies – 334

  • 7th—Pete Alonso, Mets – 315

  • 8th—Freddie Freeman, Braves – 286

  • 9th—Jacob deGrom, Mets – 206

  • 10th—Juan Soto, Nationals – 172

Box-Toppers, as a member of the IBWAA, cast very outlier votes in these races. We picked Astros pitcher Gerrit Cole for AL MVP (his only first-place MVP vote came from Box-Toppers). Cole finished 10th in IBWAA AL MVP voting. Box-Toppers chose Marcell Ozuna of the Cardinals for NL MVP. Our vote for Ozuna was such an outlier that he is not even listed as having received any first-place votes. Ozuna is not among the top 10 vote-getters and it is possible that our first-place vote is the only vote he received from about 125 voters.

It was a close race among Ozuna, Yelich and Bellinger. Had Yelich or Bellinger just won one more Player of the Game honor, they would have been Box-Toppers choice for NL MVP and the Box-Toppers choice would look more presentable.

About Box-Toppers—Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.

Box-Toppers strives for accuracy. See a mistake in a post? A wrong name, wrong team, grammar error, spelling goof, etc.? Thanks for pointing it out! Contact Box-Toppers here. Let's fix it and make it right.

Related

National League Most Valuable Player Award voting

Cody Bellinger of the Dodgers was voted NL Most Valuable PLayer. Below are the NL players in order of their voting finish, shown with their first- through 10th-place votes and their voting points total. Also shown are each player’s Box-Toppers points (BTP) for 2019 and their rank among NL batters (except in the case of pitchers, denoted with †, in which case their rank among NL pitcher is shown).

1st-10th place votes
NL player Team Pos 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th Points BTP Rank
1 Cody Bellinger Dodgers rf 19 10 362 11.2 3
2 Christian Yelich Brewers rf 10 18 1 1 317 11.7 2
3 Anthony Rendon Nationals 3b 1 1 24 3 1 242 5.0 32
4 Ketel Marte DIamondbacks 2b cf 3 18 4 4 1 198 7.0 16
5 Ronald Acuña Jr. Braves lf cf 1 5 7 9 5 2 1 155 3.7 57
6 Nolan Arenado Rockies 3b 1 1 6 4 9 2 3 1 120 9.0 6
7 Pete Alonso Mets 1b 2 5 6 11 3 2 102 7.0 17
8 Freddie Freeman Braves 1b 1 2 5 3 3 1 3 1 90 10.2 4
9 Juan Soto Nationals lf 1 6 9 4 45 6.0 23
10 Jacob deGrom Mets pi sp 4 1 1 1 3 2 44 19.1 2†
11 Josh Donaldson Braves 3b 1 3 1 2 3 27 7.5 13
12 Trevor Story Rockies ss 2 1 2 2 2 26 7.0 14
13 Jack Flaherty Cardinals pi sp 1 1 2 9 16.5 5†
14 J.T. Realmuto Phillies ca 2 2 8 7.0 15
15 Yasmani Grandal Brewers ca 1b 2 4 2.0 108
16 Max Muncy Dodgers 1b 2b 1 1 4 5.5 28
16 Stephen Strasburg Nationals pi sp 1 1 4 20.7 1†
18 Eugenio Suarez Reds 3b 4 4 6.0 22
19 Hyun-Jin Ryu Dodgers pi sp 1 3 17.4 4†
20 Paul Goldschmidt Cardinals 1b 1 2 7.5 12
21 Kolten Wong Cardinals 2b 2 2 2.0 118
22 Kevin Pillar Giants cf 1 1 4.5 45
22 Max Scherzer Nationals pi sp 1 1 15.4 9†
* Marcell Ozuna Cardinals lf 0 12.0 1
BTP: Box-Toppers points
† When an NL pitcher received MVP votes, their Box-Toppers ranking is shown among NL pitchers.
Marcell Ozuna led NL batters in 2019 Box-Toppers points (12.0), but received zero votes in NL MVP voting.

American League Most Valuable Player Award voting

Mike Trout of the Angels was voted AL Most Valuable Player. Below are the AL players in order of their voting finish, shown with their first- through 10th-place votes and their voting points total. Also shown are each player’s Box-Toppers points (BTP) for 2019 and their rank among AL batters (except in the case of pitchers, denoted with †, in which case their rank among AL pitcher is shown).

1st-10th place votes
AL player Team Pos 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th Points BTP Rank
1 Mike Trout Angels cf 17 13 355 8.7 9
2 Alex Bregman Astros 3b 13 17 335 10.0 5
3 Marcus Semien Athletics ss 22 6 2 228 8.7 10
4 DJ LeMahieu Yankees 2b 3b 1b 6 10 7 1 2 1 2 178 3.5 64
5 Xander Bogaerts Red Sox ss 1 6 7 7 2 2 3 147 8.2 13
6 Matt Chapman Athletics 3b 1 3 10 5 5 2 89 9.0 7
7 George Springer Astros cf 1 2 1 3 7 5 2 69 5.7 30
8 Mookie Betts Red Sox rf 1 1 4 4 3 2 5 67 8.7 8
9 Nelson Cruz Twins dh 4 3 3 2 2 1 62 12.5 1
10 Gerrit Cole Astros pi sp 2 4 2 1 2 1 1 61 32.2 1†
11 Justin Verlander Astros pi sp 1 2 1 3 1 1 2 2 56 27.5 2†
12 Rafael Devers Red Sox 3b 1 1 2 3 4 40 9.5 6
13 Jorge Polanco Twins ss 2 1 2 2 20 3.5 70
14 Austin Meadows Rays dh lf 1 1 1 4 15 3.5 69
15 Francisco Lindor Indians ss 1 1 1 1 13 1.0 140
16 Carlos Santana Indians 1b 1 1 2 9 4.5 43
17 Gleyber Torres Yankees ss 2b 1 1 8 12.0 2
18 Eddie Rosario Twins lf ph 2 6 3.0 76
19 Jose Abreu White Sox 1b 1 1 5 7.5 15
20 Max Kepler Twins cf rf 1 2 6.7 20
21 J.D. Martinez Red Sox dh rf 1 1 8.5 11
21 Yoan Moncada White Sox 2b 3b 1 1 4.0 59
21 Charlie Morton Rays pi sp 1 1 18.8 3†
21 Matt Olson Athletics 1b 1 1 4.0 54
21 Jorge Soler Royals dh 1 1 10.2 4
BTP: Box-Toppers points
† When an AL pitcher received MVP votes, their Box-Toppers ranking is shown among AL pitchers.