Analyzing 24 years of Box-Toppers points leaders in pitching & batting in both leagues

• Box-Toppers pitching leaders win postseason awards more often than Box-Toppers batting leaders.

• Randy Johnson has led his league category in Box-Toppers points more than any other player—he led his league’s pitchers six times.

• The Boston Red Sox have now had more players lead a Box-Toppers point season category after J.D. Martinez led American League batters in 2018. Martinez, who had 12.5 Box-Toppers points in 2018, was the ninth Red Sox player to lead a league pitching or batter category, moving ahead of the Colorado Rockies, who have had eight.

Those are a few conclusions drawn from the Box-Toppers season-by-season leaders chart for each of the past 24 seasons. 

Pitchers with the most Box-Toppers points in their league win postseason awards far more often than batters who lead their league in points. To illustrate:

• 17 times in 24 seasons the National League pitching leader has won the NL Cy Young Award.

• 13 times in 24 seasons the American League pitching leader has won the AL Cy Young Award, including 2018 when Rays pitcher Blake Snell led AL pitchers with 27.2 Box-Toppers points and won the AL Cy Young.

• Only five times in 24 seasons has the NL batting leader won the NL Most Valuable Player Award, but it happened in 2018, when Christian Yelich of the Brewers led NL batters with 11.5 Box-Toppers points and won the NL MVP.

• And only twice in 24 seasons has the AL batting leader won the AL Most Valuable Player Award (Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees in 2007 and Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers in 2013).

In other words, Box-Toppers pitching leaders and Cy Young Award winners are consistent with each other 62.5 percent of the time. Box-Toppers batting leaders and Most Valuable Player award winners are consistent with each other only 14.6 percent of the time. (In the chart above, players who led their league category in Box-Toppers points and also won a postseason award are marked with an asterisk.)

Why does Box-Toppers seem better at predicting who will be voted top pitcher than top batter? A variety of factors are at play. For one, it could be that baseball writers, who vote on postseason awards, are often just plain wrong when deciding the Most Valuable Player award, which usually goes to a batter. (This is said a bit facetiously, but some years looking at the MVP voting results, it does make a fan wonder.) Or it could be that Box-Toppers keeps track of only a batter’s offensive statistics and doesn’t take into account defense or squishy, unquantifiable factors like leadership or performance vs. expectations. Or it could be Box-Toppers actually lumps pitchers and batters together, comparing the incomparable in an apple-and-oranges fruit salad, always determining—in all-or-nothing fashion—that only a single pitcher or single batter is most responsible for a team’s win in a game.

Box-Toppers points are a measure of how much a player provides key contributions to his team’s wins. Specifically, Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.

Box-Toppers has tracked every regular season Major League Baseball game since the start of the 1995 season—more than 58,000 total games. This website, Box-Toppers.com, began at the start of the 2013 season as a day-by-day demonstration of tabulating and evaluating this Box-Toppers metric.

Some other highlights looking at season-by-season Box-Toppers leaders:

Box-Toppers top ‘all-time’ players: Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez

Randy Johnson, who has the most career Box-Toppers points of any player (278.8), led his league in his Box-Toppers category more than any other player.

Randy Johnson led his league’s pitchers in Box-Toppers points in six seasons.

The second-ranked player in “all-time” Box-Toppers player rankings, Pedro Martinez (244.8 career Box-Toppers points), has led his league’s pitchers in five different seasons, tied for the second-most of any player.

Albert Pujols has also been a leader in his Box-Toppers points category five times, making Pujols the batter with the most Box-Toppers point season crowns. Pujols also leads batters in career Box-Toppers points since 1995 with 190.8 (ranked sixth overall), earning 3.0 points in 2018.

This season, Max Scherzer of the Nationals led NL pitchers, the fourth time he has led a season points category, which puts him in a three-way tie for fourth place with pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Johan Santana. Scherzer had 25.1 Box-Toppers points in 2018. He previously led NL pitchers in 2016 (25.7) and 2017 (25.0) and led AL pitchers in 2013 with the Tigers (18.1). Scherzer has 181.8 career Box-Toppers points, ranked ninth among all players since 1995.

Curt Schilling, ranked fifth overall among all players since 1995 (194.1 career Box-Toppers points) never led his league’s pitchers in Box-Toppers points. However, in 1998, he had 19.0 Box-Toppers points, the most of any pitcher who pitched the entire season in the National League (he was with the Phillies). But Randy Johnson is considered Box-Toppers NL leader because he finished the 1998 season with the Astros (who were then in the NL) after a midseason trade from the AL Mariners. Johnson had 26.4 Box-Toppers points in 1998—the most of any player that season—12.0 with the AL Mariners and 14.4 with the NL Astros.

Also, while Schilling does not appear among the league’s season leaders in Box-Toppers points he did have the 10th-most Box-Toppers points in a single season—28.4 with the Diamondbacks in 2002. However, that year, he finished behind overall leader (Johnson, then his Diamondback teammate, with 33.7) and AL leader (Pedro Martinez of the Red Sox, 28.8 Box-Toppers points).

Felix Hernandez of the Mariners is the next-highest ranked player in overall Box-Toppers player rankings who never led a Box-Toppers category in points in a single season. Hernandez is ranked 11th in Box-Toppers points since 1995 with 174.1.

Chipper Jones is the highest-ranked batter who never led his league's batters in Box-Toppers points in a single season. Jones, third baseman for the Braves, had 149.0 Box-Toppers points, fifth among all batters since 1995. In his best season—2001—he had 16.7 Box-Toppers points, finishing behind NL batting leader Todd Helton of the Rockies, who had 17.0.

Only three players have led in Box-Toppers points in both leagues

Max Scherzer, Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez are the only three players in Box-Toppers tracking history to lead a category in both leagues.

• Scherzer led NL pitchers in 2016, 2017 and 2018 and led AL pitchers in 2013. 

• Johnson led AL pitchers in 1995 and NL pitchers from 1998 through 2002.

• Martinez led NL pitchers in 1997 and AL pitchers in 1999, 2000, 2002 and 2003.

Red Sox players have won most Box-Toppers points season titles

The Boston Red Sox this year pass the Colorado Rockies for the most representatives to lead a Box-Toppers points season category.

In 2018, J.D. Martinez led AL batters with 12.5 Box-Toppers points, the ninth time a Red Sox player has led a category, moving ahead of the Rockies, who have had eight leaders.

The other times Red Sox players have led a category:

• Pedro Martinez led AL pitchers four times as a Red Sox player—1999, 2000, 2002 and 2003.

• David Ortiz led AL batters twice—2005 and 2006.

• Jon Lester, now with the Cubs, led AL pitchers in 2010.

• Chris Sale led AL pitchers in 2017.

Two franchises move into a five-way tie for eighth place on the list in 2018 with their fourth player to lead a season points category.

Scherzer, leading NL pitchers in 2018, became the fourth player from the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals franchise to lead a category (he has led three straight seasons and Pedro Martinez did it with the Expos in 1997).

Christian Yelich, who led NL batters in 2018, became the fourth Brewers player to a lead a season points category. (Previously, CC Sabathia led NL pitchers in 2008, Prince Fielder led NL batters in 2011 and Ryan Braun led NL batters in 2012.)

Only once has the top batter and pitcher in the league come from the same team—in 2013 in the American League, when the top pitcher Max Scherzer and top batter, Miguel Cabrera, both came from the Tigers.

Three teams have not been represented among Box-Toppers category points leaders in the past 24 seasons— Mets, Marlins and Pirates. The Tampa Bay Rays had their first season points leader in 2018 with Blake Snell leading AL pitchers (and all players) with 27.2 Box-Toppers points.

High and low season leaders

It usually takes 20 or 25 Box-Toppers points for a pitcher to lead his league in Box-Toppers points. It usually takes a batter 13 to 15 points to lead his league.

These are the highest Box-Toppers points totals to lead a league category:

• AL pitching: 33.5 in 2000, Pedro Martinez of the Red Sox.

• NL pitching: 33.7 in 2000 and 2002, both by Randy Johnson of the Diamondbacks.

• AL batter: 20.4 in 1996, Albert Belle of the Indians.

• NL batter: 20.8 in 2006, Lance Berkman of the Astros.

These are the lowest Box-Toppers points totals to lead a league category:

• AL pitching: 15.7 in 1996, Chuck Finley of the Angels,

• NL pitching: 19.1 in 2006, John Smoltz of the Braves.

• AL batter: 12.1 in 2017, Edwin Encarnacion of the Indians.

• NL batter: 10.7 in 2016, Nolan Arenado of the Rockies.

In 2018, batters were poised to set the record for lowest Box-Toppers point total to lead batters in both leagues, but in the final days of the season, the league’s leading batters scored just enough points to avoid setting the dubious record.

Still, Christian Yelich of the Brewers, who led NL batters with 11.5 Box-Toppers points, had the second-lowest point total to lead a category, tied with Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies, who led NL batters in 2015.

J.D. Martinez of the Red Sox, who led AL batters with 12.5 Box-Toppers points, had the second-lowest point total to lead AL batters, tied with Aubrey Huff of the Orioles who led in 2008 and Adrian Beltre of the Rangers who led in 2016. Martinez’s 12.5 points is in a four-way tie for the sixth-lowest point total to lead a season category.

Of the top 10 lowest point totals to lead a category, only one happened prior to 2012: Aubrey Huff of the Orioles led AL batters in 2008 with 12.5 Box-Toppers points, tied for the sixth-lowest total. Batters have seen a dramatic decline in the share of Box-Toppers points they’ve earned in recent years. Prior to 2010, batters earned about 50 percent or more of all Box-Toppers points awarded, but since then their share of points earned has dipped below 50 percent, falling as low as 39 percent in 2018. As a result, batters are having overall lower point totals and fewer batters are reaching 10 Box-Toppers points in a season. In 2009 and before, there were always at least 16 batters with 10 or more Box-Toppers points per season. In 2010 and after, there were only as many as 12 batters in a season with 10 or more points (in 2011) and there were as few as five (in both 2014 and 2018).

Starters vs. closers

Only once in 48 opportunities has the honor for top league pitcher gone to anyone other than a starting pitcher. In 2004, closing pitcher Eric Gagne of the Dodgers led National League pitchers in Box-Toppers points with 19.7.

Gagne later admitted to using performance-enhancing drugs during his career.

Batters beating pitchers

Leading pitchers generally score higher than leading batters. However, in three instances in 24 seasons, a batter beat the pitcher for Box-Toppers points leader for his league:

• 1996: Albert Belle of the Indians had more Box-Toppers points than pitcher Chuck Finley of the Angels (20.4 vs. 15.7).

• 2006: Lance Berkman of the Astros had more Box-Toppers points than pitcher John Smoltz of the Braves (20.8 vs. 19.1).

• 2007: Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees had more Box-Toppers points than pitcher Johan Santana of the Twins (18.9 vs. 18.1).

However, in all three cases, the batter was not the overall leader in Box-Toppers points—that honor went to the pitcher in the opposite league:

• 1996: John Smoltz, Braves, 26.1 Box-Toppers points.

• 2006: Johan Santana, Twins, 25.7.

• 2007: Jake Peavy, Padres, 23.4.

Pitchers dominating batters

Eight times in the past 24 seasons, including each of the past five seasons, a league-leading pitcher has earned more than twice as many Box-Toppers points as the league-leading batter and in 2018, for the first time, it happened in both leagues in the same season:

• 1999: Randy Johnson of the Diamondbacks had 31.5 Box-Toppers points to lead the NL, more than double the NL leading batter, Barry Bonds of the Giants, 15.2. (2.07 times as many points.)

• 2000: Randy Johnson of the Diamondbacks had 33.7 Box-Toppers points to lead the NL, more than double the NL leading batter, Todd Helton of the Rockies, 15.2. (2.22 times as many points.)

• 2014: Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers had 31.5 Box-Toppers points to lead the NL, more than double (and nearly triple) the points of NL leading batter Troy Tulowitzki of the Rockies, 11.6. (2.72 times as many points.)

• 2015: Jake Arrieta of the Cubs had 29.1 Box-Toppers points to lead the NL, more than double the points of NL leading batter Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies, 11.5. (2.53 times as many points.)

• 2016: Max Scherzer of the Nationals had 25.7 Box-Toppers points to lead the NL, more than double the points of NL leading batter Nolan Arenado of the Rockies, 10.7. (2.40 times as many points.)

• 2017: Chris Sale of the Red Sox had 25.1 Box-Toppers points to lead the AL, more than double the points of AL leading batter Edwin Encarnacion of the Indians, 12.1. (2.07 times as many points.)

• 2018: Blake Snell of the Rays had 27.2 Box-Toppers points to lead the AL, more than double the points of AL leading batter J.D. Martinez of the Red Sox, 12.5 (2.18 times as many points). Also, Max Scherzer of the Nationals had 25.1 Box-Toppers points to lead the NL, more than double the points of NL leading batter Christian Yelich of the Brewers, 11.5 (2.18 times as many points).

Box-Toppers leaders coinciding with postseason awards

Has there ever been a year in which the leaders of the four Box-Toppers point categories (each league’s batters and pitchers) won all four major postseason awards (each league’s MVP and Cy Young Awards)?

No.

However, three times in the past 24 seasons three of the four Box-Toppers points leaders won postseason awards:

• 1997: Roger Clemens of the Blue Jays won AL Cy Young, Pedro Martinez of the Expos won NL Cy Young and Larry Walker of the Rockies won NL MVP. (AL batting Box-Toppers points leader Juan Gonzalez of the Rangers—16.3 Box-Toppers points—finished ninth in AL MVP voting. Ken Griffey Jr. of the Mariners—second among AL batters with 15.3 Box-Toppers points—was AL MVP.)

• 2009: Zack Greinke of the Royals won AL Cy Young, Tim Lincecum of the Giants won NL Cy Young and Albert Pujols of the Cardinals won NL MVP. (AL batting Box-Toppers points leader Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers—16.5 Box-Toppers points—finished fourth in AL MVP voting. Joe Mauer of the Twins—12th among AL batters with 9.2 Box-Toppers points—was AL MVP.)

• 2013: Max Scherzer of the Tigers won AL Cy Young, Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers won NL Cy Young and Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers won AL MVP. (NL batting Box-Toppers points leader Paul Goldschmidt of the Diamondbacks—13.7 Box-Toppers points—finished second in NL MVP voting. Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates—finished 22nd among NL batters with 6.0 Box-Toppers points—was NL MVP.)

Nine times in the past 24 seasons, including 2018, two of the leaders in Box-Toppers points categories also won postseason awards. 

Ten times only one of the Box-Toppers category leaders won a postseason award.

And only twice have all four Box-Toppers category leaders failed to win any of the major postseason awards—in both 2003 and 2012, none of the category leaders won Cy Young or MVP awards.