Box-Toppers picks Yankees over Nationals in 2020 World Series

Box-Toppers 2020 preseason predictions

Box-Toppers picks the Yankees to beat the Nationals in the 2020 World Series. Here is the predicted order of finish of all 30 teams in their divisions and their projected win total.

American League
EAST	Wins		CENTRAL	Wins		WEST	Wins
Yankees	110		Twins	95		Astros	86
Rays*	86		Indians*	86		Rangers	83
Red Sox	85		White Sox	81		Angels	82
Blue Jays	81		Royals	64		Athletics	81
Orioles	50		Tigers	59		Mariners	56
National League
EAST	Wins		CENTRAL	Wins		WEST	Wins
Nationals	97		Reds	87		Dodgers	89
Braves*	93		Brewers	86		Diamondbacks	86
Mets*	88		Cubs	86		Padres	79
Phillies	86		Cardinals	82		Rockies	78
Marlins	64		Pirates	70		Giants	74
* Wild card
ALCS: Yankees over Twins
NLCS: Nationals over Dodgers
World Series: Yankees over Nationals

A note from Shawn: This is folly, I realize. Even if baseball is able to return in 2020, it won’t be normal, it won’t be a 162-game schedule. There are more important things to be concerned about at the moment. But personally, as I became overwhelmed watching wall-to-wall coverage of Coronavirus news, I turned away for a moment and stumbled upon the MLB Network rebroadcast of the 1983 Royals-Yankees “pine tar” game. I found a moment of great calm and peace watching my childhood favorite player George Brett hit a home run and then freak out after being called out by Tim McClelland for having too much pine tar on his bat. Finding that calm and peace is important in these times and as “Field-of-Dreams-y” as it sounds, baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and it could be again.

This was compiled and mostly written prior to March 11 when the sports world began shutting down in response to Coronavirus. I post it knowing that what’s being projected likely won’t come to pass, at least not in this form. I post it because if we collectively don’t need the reminder of better times, at least I do.

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Box-Toppers picks the New York Yankees to beat the Washington Nationals in the 2020 World Series.

Box-Toppers projects the Yankees will have the most wins among all teams—110—and will be the only team with more than 100 wins this season.

Of course, these projections are made with the assumption that each team will play a complete 162-game schedule. That is thrown into doubt now that Coronavirus precautions have prompted baseball to suspend spring training and delay the start of the season. The last time the Major League Baseball season was shortened was 1995, when the 1994 work stoppage was not settled until April 2, 1995. A 144-game schedule, starting April 25, was played in 1995.

So it is folly in a whole variety of ways to post Box-Toppers preseason predictions. First and foremost, there are far more important things to worry about. Second, given the likelihood of a shortened season, any numbers provided here will not bear out. And third, these predictions—or any other—are rarely even close to accurate. (Box-Toppers did correctly make the preseason pick in 2009 that the Yankees would beat the Phillies in that year’s World Series—but then, that year, so did everyone else.) 

In 2019, Box-Toppers made the preseason prediction that the Yankees would beat the Chicago Cubs in the World Series. Instead, the Washington Nationals beat the Houston Astros. The Yankees lost in the American League Championship Series to the Astros. The Cubs did not qualify for the playoffs, finishing third in the National League Central division.

Box-Toppers picks last year’s World Series champions, the Washington Nationals, to repeat as National League champions winning 97 games, most in the NL.

In the AL, Box-Toppers projects four of the five 2019 postseason teams to return to the playoffs in 2020:

• The Yankees are picked to win the AL East with 110 wins (they won 103 in 2019).

• The Minnesota Twins are picked to again win the AL Central with 95 wins (they won 101 in 2019).

• The Houston Astros are picked to again win the AL West with 86 wins (they won 107 in 2019).

• The Tampa Bay Rays are picked to repeat as an AL Wild Card with 86 wins (they won 96 in 2019).

The one change to the AL postseason tournament is the Cleveland Indians, which Box-Toppers picks as the second AL Wild Card team with 86 wins. They replace last year’s AL Wild Card team, the Oakland Athletics, who won 97 in 2019, but are projected to win 81 in 2020.

In the NL, Box-Toppers projects three of the five 2019 postseason teams to return to the playoffs in 2020:

• The Nationals are picked to win the NL East with 97 wins (they won 93 in 2019).

• The Los Angeles Dodgers are picked to again win the NL West with 89 wins (they won 106 in 2019).

• The Atlanta Braves are picked to be an NL Wild Card team with 93 wins. Last year, they won the NL West with 97 wins.

Box-Toppers projects two different teams—the Cincinnati Reds and the New York Mets—will make the postseason in 2020. The Reds are projected to win the NL Central with 87 wins, replacing the St. Louis Cardinals (who won 91 in 2019, but are projected to win 82 in 2020). The Mets are projected to be an NL Wild Card team with 88 wins, replacing the Milwaukee Brewers (who won 89 games in 2019, but are projected to win 86 games in 2020).

In the postseason, Box-Toppers makes these projections (as seen in the 2020 preseason playoff picks graphic on this page):

• AL Wild Card—Rays over Indians.

• NL Wild Card—Braves over Mets.

• AL Divisional Series—Twins over Astros, Yankees over Rays.

• NL Divisional Series—Dodgers over Reds, Nationals over Braves.

• AL Championship Series—Yankees over Twins.

• NL Championship Series—Nationals over Dodgers.

• World Series—Yankees over Nationals.

Box-Toppers’ win projections and team rankings are largely similar to Box-Toppers’ first-to-30th list of teams in its preseason rankings. However, the team rankings are based only on players’ 2019 Box-Toppers point totals. The win projections and division-by-division team rankings, shown here, are based on a formula that considers players’ Box-Toppers point totals going back to 2015, with added weight given to more recent statistics.

The Yankees are the top team among Box-Toppers three different time periods used in the formula. Players on the preseason roster accumulated the most Box-Toppers points in 2019 (144.9), over 2018-19 (298.2) and over 2015-19 (621.2).

Here is a look at the top five teams based on players’ 2019 Box-Toppers point totals:

• 1. Yankees 144.9

• 2. Nationals 131.5

• 3. Twins 123.4

• 4. Braves 121.4

• 5. Rays 112.8

Here is a look at the top five teams based on players’ Box-Toppers point totals from 2018-19:

• 1. Yankees 298.2

• 2. Twins 238.7

• 3. Nationals 236.3

• 4. Braves 230.1

• 5. Phillies 223.4

Here is a look at the top five teams based on players’ Box-Toppers point totals from 2015-19:

• 1. Yankees 621.2

• 2. Mets 557.7

• 3. Phillies 554.4

• 4. Nationals 541.0

• 5. Twins 531.7

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The Yankees rank first among all teams mainly on the strength of signing free agent pitcher Gerrit Cole from the Astros. Cole led all players in 2019 with 32.2 Box-Toppers points, the fourth-largest single-season point total since Box-Toppers tracking began in 1995.

The Nationals lead NL teams after winning the World Series in 2019 with a roster slated to be largely the same in 2020. The Nationals do lose Anthony Rendon (5.0 Box-Toppers points in 2019, ninth among NL third basemen) but maintain their pitching rotation which included three of the NL’s top 10 pitchers in 2019 as ranked by Box-Toppers—Stephen Strasburg (20.7 Box-Toppers points, first among NL pitchers), Patrick Corbin (16.4, sixth) and Max Scherzer (15.4, ninth).

Box-Toppers does not factor in unknown players, rookies or prospects in these preseason picks. All projections are based on past big league performance and since a newcomer has no past big league performance, no projection is possible.

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Since Box-Toppers points are based on team wins, it is logical to extrapolate a team’s number of wins based on the share of accumulated Box-Toppers points from players on their current rosters. However, there is unusual disparity between the high- and low-ranked teams, which made these extrapolations look outlandish and far-fetched. For example, Box-Toppers initially projected the Yankees to win 122 games (the record in a season is 116), while the lowest-ranked Baltimore Orioles were projected to win only 40. Box-Toppers initially projected seven teams to lose 100 or more games (meaning they would win 62 or fewer). Since it is rare for more than a team or two to win or lose 100 games, Box-Toppers employed some mathematical compacting to bring all teams closer to a more realistic-looking center. Top teams had their win totals reduced while low-ranked teams had their win totals increased, so that now only three teams—the Orioles, Tigers and Mariners—have 100-loss seasons projected. We gave the Orioles a benefit-of-a-doubt 50-win season. (While 50 wins seems a bare minimum in 162-game season, the Tigers won only 47 in 2019—they are projected to win 59 in 2020.) The Box-Toppers mathematical compacting squeezed the Yankees down from 122 to 110 wins.

While team wins were mathematically adjusted up or down in this compacting process, each team maintained the overall ranking they held prior to compacting.

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Last year, Box-Toppers picked three of the six division winners for 2019 correctly and five of the 10 total postseason qualifiers correctly.

We correctly picked the Yankees to win the AL East, the Astros to win the AL West and the Dodgers to win the NL West. However, we picked the Indians to win the AL Central (the Twins won), the Nationals to win the NL East (the Braves won) and the Cubs to win the NL Central (the Cardinals won).

Among the teams we picked to make the playoffs that didn’t: We saw the Red Sox as an AL Wild Card team (they finished third in the AL East, 12 games out of Wild Card contention), we saw the Indians as AL Central champions (they finished second in the AL Central, eight games behind the Twins), we saw the Mets and Phillies as NL Wild Card teams (they finished third and fourth respectively in the NL East, three and eight games out of Wild Card contention) and we saw the Cubs as NL Central champions (they finished third in the NL Central, seven games behind the Cardinals and five games out of Wild Card contention).

Among the teams that made the playoffs that we didn’t pick: The Rays were an AL Wild Card team (we saw them finishing third, far out of contention with just 71 wins in the AL East), the Twins won the AL Central (we saw them as a distant second in the AL Central), the Braves won the NL East (we saw them a distant fourth in the division), the Cardinals won the NL Central (we saw them a distant fourth in the division) and the Brewers were an NL Wild Card (we had them second in the NL West, just barely out of Wild Card contention).

While we missed when we picked the Nationals as NL East champions, we did pick them to win 94 games and they won just one fewer than that, 93, to finish second in the NL East and qualify as an NL Wild Card. The Nationals did go on to win the NL championship and the World Series as a Wild Card team, exceeding our expectations—we picked them to lose in the NL Championship Series to the Cubs.

We also missed by picking the Yankees as AL champions and World Series champions. While the Yankees did win the AL East with 103 wins (we projected 111), they lost in the AL Championship Series to the Astros. We projected the Astros to win the AL West with 90 wins (they won 107) and to lose in the AL Division Series to the Indians.

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Based on Box-Toppers’ 2019 projections, the Detroit Tigers had the most disappointing season. (See chart below: A look back at Box-Toppers 2019 preseason predictions.) Box-Toppers picked them to finish fourth in the AL Central with 68 wins, but they finished fifth with baseball’s fewest wins, 47. They won 21 games fewer than projected, most among all teams.

Here are the bottom six teams who underperformed in 2019 based on Box-Toppers’ preseason projections:

• 1—Tigers. Forecast: 68 wins. Actual: 47 wins. Difference: -21.

• 2—Red Sox. Forecast: 101 wins. Actual: 84. Difference: -17.

• 2—Cubs: Forecast: 101 wins. Actual: 84. Difference: -17.

• 4—Phillies: Forecast: 94 wins. Actual: 81. Difference: -13.

• 5—Reds:  Forecast: 86 wins. Actual: 75. Difference: -11.

• 5—Marlins:  Forecast: 68 wins. Actual: 57. Difference: -11.

Conversely, the Tampa Bay Rays had the best season of any team compared to 2019 projections. The Rays were projected to win just 71 games, but won 25 more than that—96. It is the second straight season the Rays had the most wins over projection of any team. In 2018, Box-Toppers projected they’d win 59 and they won 90, 31 games more than forecast.

Here are the top five teams who performed better than expected based on 2019 Box-Toppers projections, ranked by most wins over the projection:

• 1—Rays: Forecast: 71 wins. Actual: 96 wins. Difference: +25.

• 2—Dodgers: Forecast: 85. Actual: 106. Difference: +21.

• 3—Twins: Forecast: 81. Actual: 101. Difference: +20.

• 3—Braves: Forecast: 77. Actual: 97. Difference: +20.

• 5—Astros: Forecast: 90. Actual: 107. Difference: +17.

Eleven teams finished within five games of Box-Toppers projections: Blue Jays (-2), Orioles (+4), White Sox (+4), Royals (-3), Mariners (-3), Nationals (-1), Mets (-5), Brewers (-2), Pirates (-5), Giants (+1) and Padres (+2).

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It should be noted that most Box-Toppers picks are wrong:

• In 2013, Box-Toppers picked the Dodgers to beat the Blue Jays in the World Series. The Red Sox beat the Cardinals. Box-Toppers picked the Red Sox to finish fourth in the AL East.

• In 2014, Box-Toppers picked the Dodgers to beat the Tigers in the World Series. The Giants beat the Royals. Box-Toppers picked the Giants to finish second in the NL West, failing to earn the Wild Card berth.

• In 2015, Box-Toppers picked the Nationals to beat the Royals in the World Series. The Royals beat the Mets. Box-Toppers was closer, picking the Royals as AL champions, but no cigar.

• In 2016, Box-Toppers picked the Blue Jays over the Cubs in the World Series. The Cubs beat the Indians. Again, Box-Toppers was close, picking the Cubs as NL champions.

• In 2017, Box-Toppers picked the Nationals over the Red Sox in the World Series. The Astros beat the Dodgers. Both of Box-Toppers’ picks made the postseason, but lost in the division series round. The Astros were projected to finish second in the AL West, out of the postseason.

• In 2018, Box-Toppers picked the Indians over the Nationals in the World Series. The Red Sox beat the Dodgers. The Nationals did not make the postseason. The Indians did win the AL Central and lost in the ALDS to the Astros. The Red Sox were projected to win the AL East and lose in the ALCS to the Indians.

But in 2009, Box-Toppers did correctly make the preseason pick that the Yankees would beat the Phillies in that year’s World Series (but then, that year, so did everyone else).

About Box-Toppers—Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.

Box-Toppers strives for accuracy. See a mistake in a post? A wrong name, wrong team, grammar error, spelling goof, etc.? Thanks for pointing it out! Contact Box-Toppers here. Let's fix it and make it right.

Related:

Box-Toppers 2020 preseason team rankings: Yankees top Box-Toppers 2020 preseason team rankings; champion Nationals rank 2nd

Box-Toppers 2019 preseason prediction: Box-Toppers picks Yankees over Cubs in 2019 World Series

A look back at Box-Toppers’ 2019 preseason predictions

How did Box-Toppers 2019 preseason predictions pan out by the end of last season? Here’s a look showing how many games Box-Toppers predicted each team would win, the number of actual wins each team had and the difference (+/-) between prognostication and reality. For example, Box-Toppers predicted the Washington Nationals would win 94 games and win the National League East division, but they actually won 93, one fewer than forecast and finished second in the NL East (however, they earned an NL Wild Card berth and ended up winning the World Series). But Box-Toppers also forecast the Tampa Bay Rays to win only 71 games—they exceeded expectations, winning 25 more (96). On the flip side, Box-Toppers said the Detroit Tigers would win 68 games—they won 21 fewer than forecast (47).

American League
	Wins					Wins					Wins
EAST	Forecast	Actual	+/-		CENTRAL	Forecast	Actual	+/-		WEST	Forecast	Actual	+/-
Yankees†	111	103	-8		Twins	81	101	+20		Astros†	90	107	+17
Rays	71	96	+25		Indians†	103	93	-10		Athletics*	86	97	+11
Red Sox*	101	84	-17		White Sox	68	72	+4		Rangers	71	78	+7
Blue Jays	69	67	-2		Royals	62	59	-3		Angels	81	72	-9
Orioles	50	54	+4		Tigers	68	47	-21		Mariners	71	68	-3
National League
	Wins					Wins					Wins
EAST	Forecast	Actual	+/-		CENTRAL	Forecast	Actual	+/-		WEST	Forecast	Actual	+/-
Braves	77	97	+20		Cardinals	85	91	+6		Dodgers†	85	106	+21
Nationals†	94	93	-1		Brewers	91	89	-2		Diamondbacks	76	85	+9
Mets*	91	86	-5		Cubs†	101	84	-17		Giants	76	77	+1
Phillies*	94	81	-13		Reds	86	75	-11		Rockies	81	71	-10
Marlins	68	57	-11		Pirates	74	69	-5		Padres	68	70	+2
† Picked as division winning teams in 2019.
* Picked as wild card teams in 2019.