NLCS Preview: Wild card Nationals seem to hold the cards against Cardinals

Though the Washington Nationals are the Wild Card team, they seem to hold most of the advantages over the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Championship Series.

The Nationals have more wins and rank higher in Box-Toppers team rankings than the NL Central champion Cardinals. Still, the Cardinals have a Box-Toppers point advantage in starting batting lineups, as the teams begin the best-of-seven games series Friday in St. Louis.

Wins—The Nationals won 93 games while the Cardinals won 91. However, the Nationals finished four games behind the NL East champion Atlanta Braves. The Cardinals won the NL East two games ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Box-Toppers team rankings—The Nationals are Box-Toppers’ highest-ranked National League team with its players accumulating 132.9 Box-Toppers points. They rank second overall only to the Houston Astros (158.1). The Cardinals, by contrast, have the second-fewest team Box-Toppers points of all postseason teams (105.8, 12th overall), ahead of only the NL Wild Card team Milwaukee Brewers (104.9 points, 14th). Three non-playoff qualifiers finished ahead of the Cardinals: the Cleveland Indians (110.8 points, ranked ninth), the New York Mets (108.7 points, ranked 10th) and the Chicago Cubs (107.9 points, ranked 11th).

Starters—Nationals key starting players have more Box-Toppers points than key Cardinals starting players. Among a group of 17 players on each team (shown in the chart below), Nationals players have a combined 107.7 Box-Toppers points, while the comparable group of Cardinals players have 85.1.

Starting pitching—The Nationals have three pitchers among the top overall 15-ranked players in Box-Toppers points while the Cardinals have just one. Further, the Nationals four main starting pitchers have a combined Box-Toppers point total of 59.5, while the Cardinals starting four have a combined 34.6 points.

Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg led all NL pitchers in 2019 with 20.7 Box-Toppers points, ranked third overall. Two other Nationals pitchers ranked among the top 10 in the NL—Patrick Corbin (16.4 points, 12th overall, sixth among NL pitchers) and Max Scherzer (15.4 points, 15th overall, ninth among NL pitchers).

Jack Flaherty is the Cardinals top pitcher with 16.5 Box-Toppers points, 11th among all players and fifth among NL pitchers.

Strasburg has already earned Player of the Game honors twice during the postseason—in the Oct. 1 NL Wild Card Game and in the Oct. 4 NL Division Series Game 2.

Starting batting lineup—Cardinals’ likely starting eight batting line-up have more combined 2019 Box-Toppers points than their Nationals counterpart. The probable eight starting Cardinals batters have 38.5 combined Box-Toppers points while the starting eight Nationals batters have 25.0.

Bench—However, Nationals’ top three bench or platoon players far outdistance the point total of the Cardinals’ comparable three players (15.2 vs. 4.0).

Relief pitching—Both teams are roughly equal. The Nationals have been using Daniel Hudson (5.0 Box-Toppers points in 2019) as closer recently while the Cardinals have used Carlos Martinez (4.0 points). The next-highest ranked reliever for the Cardinals is John Brebbia (4.0 points) while the next-highest ranked reliever for the Nationals is Sean Doolittle (3.0 points).

A look at each team’s regular season:

At the start of the season, Box-Toppers picked the Nationals to win the NL East and advance as far as the NLCS. Box-Toppers picked the Cardinals to finish fourth in the NL Central.

The Cardinals led all NL teams in Box-Toppers team rankings for one week on May 2. After that, they never ranked high enough to lead the NL Central or qualify as one of the NL’s two Wild Card teams—even at season’s end, they finished second in Box-Toppers team rankings in the NL Central behind the non-playoff qualifying Chicago Cubs (107.9 vs. 105.8).

The Nationals started the season relatively slowly but rose in Box-Toppers team rankings to ninth place on June 20, which had them leading for the second NL Wild Card spot. They rose to lead the NL East in Box-Toppers team rankings July 7, ranking sixth overall. They rose to lead all NL teams Aug. 8, ranking second overall and continued to lead NL teams for the final eight Box-Toppers weekly team rankings reports.

The Nationals strength in Box-Toppers team rankings relative to their lower ranking in actual team standings can be attributed to their strong starting pitching. The top three Nationals pitchers (Strasburg, Corbin and Scherzer) have been Player of the Game in 37 of the Nationals’ 93 wins. But in 17 of the 37 instances, those pitchers have earned 15.5 bonus Box-Toppers points by being overall Player of the Day (12 times) or NL Player of the Day (five times). In other words, those three pitchers have taken 37 wins, normally worth 37.0 Box-Toppers points and turned them into 52.5 points.

By contrast, all Cardinals players won overall Player of the Day honors (worth 2.0 total points) only four times during the regular season (Strasburg and Scherzer did it five times each on their own). However, Cardinals players (all pitchers) did earn NL Player of the Day honors (worth 1.7 total points) nine times during the season, including five times by Jack Flaherty.

Midseason acquisitions

The Nationals boosted themselves at the July 31 trade deadline with several key midseason acquisitions, helping them rise to first among NL teams in Box-Toppers team rankings. The Nationals acquired closing pitcher Roenis Elias from the Mariners, relief pitcher Daniel Hudson from the Blue Jays and closing pitcher Hunter Strickland from the Mariners. Those three players came to the Nationals with a combined 11.0 Box-Toppers points earned on the season but finished 2019 with just 13.0 combined, earning only 2.0 points since the Nationals acquired them.

The Cardinals had no trades during the season that added to their Box-Toppers point total.

Notable players

In addition to the starting pitchers already mentioned (Strasburg, Corbin and Scherzer for the Nationals and Flaherty for the Cardinals) here are other notable players in the series:

  • Marcell Ozuna of the Cardinals leads all NL batters in 2019 with 12.0 Box-Toppers points, 29th among all players. He ranks ahead of Christian Yelich of the Brewers (11.7 points) and Cody Bellinger of the Dodgers (11.2 points) among NL batters.

  • Asdrubal Cabrera leads all Nationals batters with 9.0 Box-Toppers points, seventh among NL batters. Cabrera only started one of the Nationals six postseason games and only appeared in three total. Cabrera played in only 38 games for the Nationals since he was traded at the end of July from the Rangers. However, he earned 5.5 of his 9.0 points with the Nationals. Leftfielder Juan Soto has the most Box-Toppers points among batters who played the entire season for the Nationals (6.0).

  • Paul Goldschmidt is the only Cardinals batter besides Ozuna to rank among the season’s top 100 players in Box-Toppers points. Goldschmidt has 7.5 Box-Toppers points, 96th among all players and 12th among NL batters. 

There are two batters among both teams’ projected starters who had 0.0 Box-Toppers points in 2019:

  • Michael Taylor of the Nationals, who played in 53 games for the Nationals and was demoted to the minor leagues much of the summer. Taylor had a career-high 5.5 Box-Toppers points in 2015 and has 10.2 career points from 2015-2017, but has not earned points in either 2018 or 2019.

  • Matt Wieters of the Cardinals, who played in 67 games as Yadier Molina’s backup at catcher. Wieters has not earned Box-Toppers points since 2017, when he was with the Nationals, so has no points in either 2018 or 2019. His best season was 2016 with the Orioles, when he had 11.0 points, fifth among AL batters and first among AL catchers. He has 37.7 career Box-Toppers points, earned from 2009 to 2017, sixth among active catchers.

NLCS Game 1, Nationals at Cardinals

The pitching matchup Friday:

Nationals—Anibal Sanchez, 7.0 Box-Toppers points, 104th among all players, 43rd among NL pitchers.

This is Sanchez’s second 2019 postseason appearance. He started NLDS Game 3 against the Dodgers, which the Nationals lost.

Cardinals—Miles Mikolas, 3.0 Box-Toppers points, 309th among all players, 86th among NL pitchers.

This is Mikolas’s third 2019 postseason appearance. He started NLDS Game 1 against the Braves and pitched an inning of relief in Game 4 of the series. He did not earn Player of the Game honors either time.

See the Box-Toppers point totals of all Nationals and Cardinals players who earned Player of the Game honors in 2019.

About Box-Toppers—Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.

Box-Toppers strives for accuracy. See a mistake in a post? A wrong name, wrong team, grammar error, spelling goof, etc.? Thanks for pointing it out! Contact Box-Toppers here. Let's fix it and make it right.

NL Championship Series player comparisons

Likely starting players for the Nationals and Cardinals listed by position with their Box-Toppers point total (BTP) for the 2019 regular season and their overall rank among all players. Includes likely starting eight batters, three likely bench batters, four starting pitchers, top closing pitcher and one extra pitcher:  
Pos Nationals BTP Rank Pos Cardinals BTP Rank
1B Ryan Zimmerman 1.0 583 1B Paul Goldschmidt 7.5 96
2B Howie Kendrick 4.5 219 2B Kolten Wong 2.0 453
SS Trea Turner 3.0 325 SS Paul DeJong 5.0 172
3B Anthony Rendon 5.0 169 3B Matt Carpenter 2.0 410
CA Kurt Suzuki 4.5 212 CA Yadier Molina 3.0 329
CF Michael Taylor 0.0 1060 CF Dexter Fowler 6.0 147
LF Juan Soto 6.0 141 LF Marcell Ozuna 12.0 29
RF Adam Eaton 1.0 613 RF Tommy Edman 1.0 712
PH Asdrubal Cabrera 9.0 64 PH Jose Martinez 3.0 318
PH Victor Robles 3.5 291 PH Harrison Bader 1.0 638
PH Gerardo Parra 2.7 372 PH Matt Wieters 0.0 1085
SP Stephen Strasburg 20.7 3 SP Jack Flaherty 16.5 11
SP Patrick Corbin 16.4 12 SP Dakota Hudson 7.7 95
SP Max Scherzer 15.4 15 SP Adam Wainwright 7.4 102
SP Anibal Sanchez 7.0 104 SP Miles Mikolas 3.0 309
CP Daniel Hudson 5.0 192 CP Carlos Martinez 4.0 231
PI Sean Doolittle 3.0 320 PI John Brebbia 4.0 254
Totals 107.7 Totals 85.1